Odaily星球日报讯 渣打银行全球外汇研究和宏观策略主管 Steve Englander 表示，市场的反应，即美元走弱，债券收益率略微走低，是大致正确的。鲍威尔并没有表示“是的，我们要用三个 50 个基点的降息来开始宽松周期，”他所做的是非常注重这样一个事实，即通胀目标就在眼前。他们担心劳动力市场，说劳动力市场不必进一步疲软。因此，在没有给出时间表的情况下，这番言论暗示着打开了在某个时候降息 50 个基点的大门。我们仍然不认为降息 50 个基点是第一招，但如果劳动力市场继续疲软，这可能很快就会到来。（金十）

渣打：50个基点不是第一招，美联储降息可能很快到来

Odaily Odaily News: Steve Englander, head of global foreign exchange research and macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the market&#39;s reaction, that is, a weaker dollar and slightly lower bond yields, is roughly correct. Powell did not say &quot;Yes, we are going to start the easing cycle with three 50 basis point rate cuts,&quot; what he did was to focus very much on the fact that the inflation target is just around the corner. They are worried about the labor market and say that the labor market does not have to weaken further. Therefore, without giving a timetable, this remark implies that the door is opened to a 50 basis point rate cut at some point. We still do not think that a 50 basis point rate cut is the first move, but if the labor market continues to weaken, this may come soon. (Jinshi)

Standard Chartered: 50 basis points is not the first move, the Fed's interest rate cut may come soon

Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard discussed the outlook for the US economy, the Fed's rate cut path, the US election, "Black Monday" and other hot topics, and said he believes there may be a 25 basis point rate cut at each meeting, for several consecutive meetings, meaning there could be a 75 basis point rate cut from now until December. (Golden Ten)

Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard: Rate cuts of 75 basis points this year may be in the cards

Odaily reports that Kai Investment Macro believes the US dollar may further decline in the coming years, as the valuation of the US dollar is still relatively high and faces adverse interest rate differentials and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Economist Shivaan Tandon said in the report that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may exceed those of other countries, meaning that the interest rate differential may continue to be unfavorable for the United States. "We also expect risk appetite to remain strong, which means the US dollar will continue to be under pressure." Although there are concerns about an economic recession, the US economy appears to be heading for a soft landing. Kai Investment Macro forecasts that the DXY US dollar index will fall to 98 by the end of 2025.

Economist Shivaan Tandon: The Fed may cut interest rates more than other countries

Uto Shinohara, Managing Director and Senior Investment Strategist at Mesirow, stated that Powell confirmed the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, while continuing to emphasize data dependence and the future economic outlook. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates along with other major central banks is driving the US dollar lower. Although the US dollar is under pressure, the implied rate cut expectations have not changed significantly: the September meeting is still expected to be around 30 basis points, and the total rate cut expected for the year has only increased from around 95 basis points to the current 100 basis points. As inflation moves towards the target, employment-related risks will play a greater role after the significant downward revision of the non-farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's response to employment data will continue to drive the US dollar's trend. (Jinshi)