Odaily星球日报讯 美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示降息时机已到，恒生银行高级顾问梁兆基今日在一个电台节目表示，9 月很大机会降息，估计可能降 1/4 厘（25bp）。他预料美联储今年会降息两次，每次 1/4 厘，即年底时可能降息半厘（50bp），相信对香港会是好消息。梁兆基指，降息令各行各业的信贷成本相对降低，同时可带旺市场气氛，希望可增加生意流量。（香港商报）

恒生银行专家料美联储今年降息两次，认为对香港是好消息

Odaily Odaily News: Fed Chairman Powell has made it clear that the time has come to cut interest rates. Hang Seng Bank Senior Advisor Liang Zhaoji said in a radio program today that there is a high chance of a rate cut in September, and it is estimated that it may be cut by 1/4 percentage point (25bp). He expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, 1/4 percentage point each time, which means that it may cut interest rates by half a percentage point (50bp) by the end of the year, which is believed to be good news for Hong Kong. Liang Zhaoji pointed out that the interest rate cut will reduce the credit costs of various industries relatively, and at the same time it can boost the market atmosphere and hope to increase business traffic. (Hong Kong Commercial Daily)

Hang Seng Bank experts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, which is good news for Hong Kong

The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 22 to 24, and the global community is highly focused on the speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Powell, on August 23. It is expected that he will deliver the speech at 10 AM Eastern Time (10 PM Taiwan time) on Friday. With the significant downward revision of the US non-farm employment figures, and the July Federal Reserve meeting minutes showing that most officials support a rate cut in September, Powell is expected to convey a dovish tone.

Evercore ISI recently estimated that Powell should hint at a flexible approach to rate cuts, with a 25-basis-point cut in September being the basic scenario, but he remains open to a 50-basis-point cut.

The chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 1% in September exceeds 70%. Will Ball pour cold water on the market tonight?

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Officials from three major central banks hinted on Friday that they will firmly lower or continue to lower interest rates in the coming months, signaling the end of the era of high borrowing costs as the global economy emerges from post-pandemic inflation control. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole meeting: "The time for policy adjustment has come." He almost promised that the Fed will cut interest rates at the September meeting. The determination of the start date for interest rate cuts, and the efforts of many major central banks around the world in the same direction, have alleviated some of the concerns of investors. After the landmark interest rate cut in June, several members of the European Central Bank - the Governor of the Bank of Finland Rehn, the Governor of the Bank of Latvia Kazaks, the Governor of the Bank of Croatia Vujcic, and the Governor of the Bank of Portugal Centeno - all stated that they will support another interest rate cut next month. Bank of England Governor Bailey, in a pre-prepared speech, said the risk of persistent inflation is diminishing, hinting at an open attitude towards further interest rate cuts. However, Powell and other Fed officials did not provide much guidance on how quickly they plan to continue cutting interest rates in the coming months. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said: "This is all about optionality and adjusting how they 'come down the mountain.'" "This speech clearly indicates that the labor market is now their top priority."

Officials from major central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, have all hinted at a firm determination to lower or continue to lower interest rates.

Uto Shinohara, Managing Director and Senior Investment Strategist at Mesirow, stated that Powell confirmed the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, while continuing to emphasize data dependence and the future economic outlook. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates along with other major central banks is driving the US dollar lower. Although the US dollar is under pressure, the implied rate cut expectations have not changed significantly: the September meeting is still expected to be around 30 basis points, and the total rate cut expected for the year has only increased from around 95 basis points to the current 100 basis points. As inflation moves towards the target, employment-related risks will play a greater role after the significant downward revision of the non-farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's response to employment data will continue to drive the US dollar's trend. (Jinshi)