Yesterday’s internal reference [“ 8.23 Teaching Chain Internal Reference: El Salvador Achieves Success ”] surprisingly accurately predicted the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting at 10 o’clock that evening - “Powell is widely expected to signal that the Fed will begin to reduce policy restrictions in September, but there are limited clues about the frequency and magnitude of rate cuts.”
It’s not that people guess correctly, but that Powell never disappoints the market.
In a speech that drew worldwide attention last night[1], Powell confirmed:
1. Confidence in inflation returning to the 2% target has grown. He said, "My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent."
2. The job market has cooled. "Today, the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state," he said.
3. Economic growth remains resilient. He said, "Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace."
He further emphasized: "The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate."
He affirmed categorically: "The time has come for policy to adjust."
How can this be called a "hint"? This is already an "explicit statement", okay?
However, regarding the pace and extent of adjustments, he said: "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
It is exactly the same as what was said in [ yesterday’s internal reference ].
Powell's speech, the ceiling of language art.
As Powell was speaking, the long and short sides of BTC started to fight. First, the longs suddenly pushed BTC from 61k to over 62k in 15 minutes, and then the shorts used three 15 minutes to push the longs back from 62k to 61k. But the shorts were ultimately powerless to turn the tide, and the evenly matched zero-sum game in the market could not change the direction of external forces. BTC started to soar from 61k, and by around 5 am, it had risen above 65k.
In the morning, Jiaolian saw this scene and sent a greeting: "Whenever the market surges, don't just ask whether it goes up or down, first ask whether your position is sufficient. I encourage you. Good morning!"
The social network shows all kinds of people: some are secretly happy with the rise of full positions. Some claim that they have already won by clearing their positions and taking profits. Some regret reducing their positions and wait for the fall, not knowing whether they can get on the train again. Some cry and scream because their positions have been liquidated and they have lost everything. Some pretend to be rich and say that the short position does not hurt.
There is even a ridiculous theory saying that $100,000 is just the starting point, and that one must hold short positions now and wait until $100,000 to be stable.
There are also people who have gone crazy and threatened to wait for 25,000 with empty positions. If they cannot wait in this lifetime, they will let their sons wait, and if their sons cannot wait, they will let their grandchildren wait, and so on. They swear to wait until the price reaches 25,000.
All these things are a magnificent sight.
There is a saying that goes, "People can't teach people, but things can teach people." But it seems to be out of practice in this market. No matter how many times the account is blown up or how many times it loses everything, people still remember to eat but not to be beaten.
The fate of a contract is liquidation. The end point of a short position is exit.
There are many people who claim that they are both long-term believers in BTC and short-term short short and order takers. Jiaolian doesn’t believe a word of this.
The touching aspect of this logic reminds me of a famous Russian prostitute who engaged in prostitution every day of her life but claimed that she was the purest and cleanest woman in the world.
Of course, if the so-called “pure” and “clean” means not making money, then long-term holders of BTC will indeed be labeled as “impure” and “unclean”.
But just like the heartbreaking story in the Italian film "Malèna", in this absurd world, how can we distinguish between you and me, the pure and the impure, the clean and the unclean, the corrupt and the non-corrupted.
In the eyes and hearts of the fallen, those who refuse to fall are the ones who fall.
He mocks. He detracts. He raves.
Buddha said, all living beings suffer.
All living beings suffer, yet they refuse to realize their mistake.
—
[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240823a.htm
