Last night, the founder of TG was arrested in France. Due to the close relationship between TON public chain and TG, the TON public chain plummeted.
The TON public chain has been doing well this year, leveraging the advantages of TG to guide users into the public chain, that is, entering the web3 field.
This is both an advantage and a disadvantage, because it is too dependent on a certain entity or person, just like the previous case when CZ faced US charges that led to the sluggish price of BNB. These risks are black swan events, which cannot be predicted in advance.
Therefore, we should pay close attention to relevant events when investing, and it is best to make decisions after the trend of events becomes clear. For example, it is not a good choice to buy the dips TON and its ecological project tokens at the bottom at present. You may bet on a rebound, but the risks are great. You should wait for the development of subsequent events and make decisions after the trend becomes clear.
Many people saw that the founder of TG was arrested and prepared to buy the dips TON at the bottom:
The suggestion is to buy the dips but not hold for long:
1. TON’s biggest expectation before was to be listed on Binance, which has been fulfilled.
2. The price of TON includes expectations for the ecosystem. Now that the founder has been arrested, it will be difficult for ecosystem projects to be listed on Binance.
3. Several heavyweight projects in the ecosystem have already been listed on Binance. In fact, after grabbing Telegram’s users a few times, there are enough of them and they are not in a hurry to list more projects.
4. Looking back at the various Altcoin that were previously sued by the SEC, as well as the historical trends of BNB after CZ was pledged, after a rebound, they were all in a long period of weak market conditions, and even fell below the price after the news came out. The current price is not the real bottom.
What does it take to be considered a violent bull market?
In my opinion, only when most retail investors can make money can it be called a violent bull market. At present, many people's Altcoin are still in a state of being trapped, and no one is an exception. In the first half of the year, many capitals have been supporting the SOL chain, and Binance has also launched many currencies on the SOL chain. However, it is obvious that this has not attracted new funds to enter the market.
Most retail investors are still losing money on the SOL chain, which does not generate wealth and makes it difficult to attract new entrants.
At present, the violent bull market is just missing an opportunity, an opportunity that will allow outsiders to rush into the crypto regardless of everything. In 21 years, shib skyrocketed tens of thousands of times, and many retail investors profited from it, which in turn led to more outsiders entering the market.
At that time, it was so crazy that many newcomers asked how to buy shib. So, in my opinion, the SOL chain has not brought any substantial benefits to the crypto. Instead, it has been cutting leeks among the circle and consuming the funds in the circle.
Recently, those capitals and exchanges realized that the SOL chain cannot be supported, so they began to support the ton chain. It depends on whether a big large MC memecoin can be born on the ton chain to attract outsiders to enter the market. In the second half of the Altcoin market, you must not cross margin in on All In and use funds that you can bear the risk of zeroing to play with these Altcoin.
Let’s take a chance and see if we can seize this wealth effect. I think this round of opportunities is more likely to appear on BTC and TON networks.
Is there any chance for the BTC to fall below 50,000? Obviously, no one predicts the short-term, but if there is still a chance to fall below 50,000, what could be the reason? As mentioned in the previous article, there has always been a view that if the interest rate cut occurs when the US stock market is strong, then there will often be good performance in the following months. The result of the current capital vote is that the probability of a 25bq cut in September is 60%+, and the probability of a 50bq cut is more than 30%. If it is finally reduced by 50bq, then don't think about it if you want to fall below 50,000 in the short term. The unexpected good news will accelerate the takeoff quickly. If it happens to fall by 25bq, then it's okay, the bull market will continue, but it will be slower, go slowly, and go longer. If it doesn't fall and continues to remain unchanged, it will be a "black swan", and this situation may give it another chance to fall below 50,000. Therefore, whether it can fall below 50,000 again depends on which script will be followed. I am more optimistic that it will fall, but it will be 25bq, not a lot. How it will go, we will see as we go.
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