Original | Liu Jiaolian
Overnight, BTC still held sideways at 64k. Some people joked that BTC is about to become a stable currency. After many rounds of fierce battles, both bulls and bears are exhausted. Network monitoring data shows that the BTC mainnet fee rate has dropped to 3 sats/vbytes (a transfer only costs about 0.27 US dollars), and the Ethereum mainnet gas fee has dropped to less than 1 gwei (a normal transfer only costs 4 cents).
It was as if all the speculators had gone to Mars for vacation overnight. Such a deserted mainnet also seemed to make people realize the absurdity of the "capacity expansion" narrative.
The more deserted and dull the moment is, the less sound you can hear, as if this land has been forgotten by the public. And the more so at this time, the better the opportunity for investment.
Those who are motivated by media, especially mass media, to invest are most likely to lose money. They always forget when good opportunities come and return when they are bound to lose.
The media are naturally cold and indifferent. The more popular the media, the colder they are. This is because they spare no effort to cater to the dopamine or adrenaline of the masses. They are born to pursue hot spots and novelties, and turn a blind eye to the cold and dull.
They always intervene at times of high volatility, make a big fuss, carry their own agenda, and mislead investors with their unsuccessful values. Then, when the market returns to normal and investors suffer heavy losses, they quietly leave the market without taking any responsibility.
I saw a person angrily scolding in a short video: Twenty years ago you told us not to buy houses, and those who bought houses back then all became rich; ten years ago you told us not to buy cryptocurrencies, and those who bought cryptocurrencies back then all became financially free; for more than a decade you have been telling us to buy A-shares, and now we are stuck...
In fact, as a leek, the basic cultivation of thousands of rules can be summed up in one sentence: be willing to accept defeat and take responsibility for your own actions.
If you choose to listen to what others say, your fault lies in your choice of listening, not in what others say. Of course, this does not apply to those who use their own authority to package propaganda as opinions.
If you can get rid of the confirmation bias in your mind, you will find that the market is full of long, short and neutral voices at all times, and the volume is actually about the same. The only problem is that you only choose to listen to what you want to hear.
The first principle of Satoshi Nakamoto’s thought: Don’t believe, verify!
Especially when it comes to investment, the least trustworthy source is the mass media. The more popular it is, the less trustworthy it is.
It’s not that there is anything wrong with them. Their problem is that they are too “popular”. And investment is exactly the opposite of “popular”.
This can be rigorously proven mathematically.
If the “masses” — everyone — makes multiple times more money, then it is equivalent to no one making any money. This is obvious common sense.
From this, we can infer that if you want to "earn" money in the true sense, it must mean that the public must be "losing" money in substance. If the nominal amount of money is increasing, then on the surface, it may be reflected that the public is making a small profit while you are making a big profit, that is, the proportion of money you own in the total amount is increasing, while that of the public is decreasing.
Further reasoning, whether it is a correct view or a wrong propaganda, as long as it is known and accepted by the public, it will inevitably become wrong. Because the result of the public's loss is already determined, regardless of the input. This means that any input will result in a loss. Therefore, according to the causal law of human limited rationality, it can be concluded that the input leads to investment losses.
This is another aspect of the efficient market theory. That is, any view, opinion or theory, as long as it is known and accepted by the public, will become the reason why investment cannot be profitable, regardless of whether the view, opinion or theory itself is right or wrong.
Therefore, this is just a question of definitions. The so-called investment profit is essentially defined as outperforming the public.
The public cannot outperform the public. This is an ironclad logic, as indestructible as 1+1=2.
The direction that the public is heading towards must be a direction that cannot make a profit.
To outperform the crowd, you just need to go against the crowd.
But you are also part of the masses, so how can you guess exactly where the masses are going?
The mass media then becomes an excellent guide.
(Official account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: reply “Planet” to the official account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and there is a risk of it returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for your own actions.)
