Odaily星球日报讯 DHF Capital 首席商务长 Erik Boekel 在一份报告中表示，如果美联储 9 月份大幅降息 50 个基点，美国国债收益率可能会进一步下跌。Refinitiv 数据显示，美国货币市场目前预计 9 月将降息 34 个基点，这意味着降息 25 个基点的可能性大于降息 50 个基点的可能性。他表示：“总体而言，预期中的宽松周期预计将使美元和美国国债收益率承压。”（金十P）

DHF Capital：若美联储9月降息50个基点，美债收益率可能下滑

Odaily Odaily News: DHF Capital Chief Commercial Officer Erik Boekel said in a report that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, U.S. Treasury yields may fall further. Refinitiv data shows that the U.S. money market currently expects a 34 basis point rate cut in September, which means that the possibility of a 25 basis point cut is greater than the possibility of a 50 basis point cut. He said: &quot;Overall, the expected easing cycle is expected to put pressure on the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.&quot; (Jin Shi P)

DHF Capital: If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, U.S. Treasury yields may fall

Table of Contents
- A rate cut does not necessarily mean an immediate rise in the risk market, on the contrary, in most cases it is a decline
- 1. Increased volatility in the financial market
- 2. Inflation risk
- 3. Capital outflows and currency depreciation
- 4. Instability of the financial system
- 5. Limited effectiveness of policy tools
- Inventory of the main risk points in the current market
- Risk One: Risk of US Economic Recession
- Risk Two: Pace of Rate Cuts
- Risk Three: QT Program
- Risk Four: Resurgence of Inflation Risk
- Risk Five: Efficiency of Global Central Bank Coordination
- Risk Six: US Elections

Will interest rates rise if the Fed cuts them? Beware of these six major risks dragging down the market

Table of Contents
- Will the Federal Reserve likely cut rates by 2 points in September?
- The United States is about to cut interest rates, and the market is turning to "US dollar carry trade"
- Wall Street estimates that PCE data is positive, supporting the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday at the Jackson Hole annual meeting that the time to cut interest rates has come, "the time to adjust policy has arrived", and "the timing and pace of rate cuts depend on the upcoming data, the constantly changing outlook, and the balance of risks". This is his most explicit signal for a rate cut so far.
The Federal Reserve may likely cut rates by 2 points in September...

Powell made it clear that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, Wall Street: "The carry trade is reviving" and this time the protagonist is the U.S. dollar

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers stated that although the Federal Reserve did not act quickly enough to address the surge in inflation in 2021, which was the "low point" in its monetary policy history, it ultimately took sufficient measures to correct the economy. The former Treasury Secretary said that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates at the September meeting was the "right move," but he believes that "we need to be more cautious about the medium-term outlook for monetary policy." Summers said he believes the Federal Reserve will not be able to cut interest rates as significantly as the market expects over the next two years. The derivatives market reflects that traders expect the Federal Reserve to lower the benchmark interest rate to around 3% over the next two years, compared to the current target range of 5.25% to 5.5%.