Judging from the current market conditions, the overall market trend will still tend to fluctuate. The current position is not very stable. In the short term, the market will be in the range of 58000-60500. Ethereum will be in the range of 2330-2530. Sol will be in the range of 141-150 in the short term.
The market started to crash around 5am, and I thought there must be some news affecting the market. But I looked around and found that there was no special news affecting the market trend. There was only one piece of "institutional analysis" news saying that the market was still digesting Powell's hint of a rate cut last week.
Let me explain my personal interpretation of what this institution meant: It probably means that I have to dump the market at the end of the month. After all, my short position has not been closed yet and I don’t have much time left, because the US will cut interest rates next month. If I don’t close out, it will be very dangerous and my position will be liquidated.
But I would like to ask everyone, do you believe what the agency said? I don’t think things are that simple. The dog dealer must have received some news. There will always be information gaps, and maybe it will be announced later.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes!
Rate cut + FASB takes effect + US election + BTC 4y cycle + BTC halving cycle = 11/12 months
There is no substantial difference between this cycle (21-24) so far and the past (13-17, 17-21) when observing it.
Before 2013, due to the lack of infrastructure (no CEX + Mentougou period), liquidity was low, participants were small, and the cycle characteristics were different from those that followed.
The only variable in this round came from the approval of the BTC ETF in January 2024, which was a huge positive externality inflow, allowing BTC to break through the previous high in March and then fall back, which also led to the discussion of "this time is different" at the time. Looking back now, the trend is still developing as fate would have it.
Specifically, the BTC 4-year cycle (i.e., previous cycle high ⇒ new cycle high) is broken down (weekly chart, days are also counted according to 7D):
Previous high ⇒ cycle bottom: 17/21/24 The cycles lasted 413/364/364 days respectively.
Cycle bottom ⇒ Breakthrough of previous high: The 17/21 cycles lasted 749/728 days respectively, and this cycle corresponds to November 24.
Breaking through previous high ⇒ cycle high: The 17/21 cycles lasted 315/336 days respectively, and this round corresponds to the end of 25 years.
The full cycle time is exactly 4 years of BTC halving, and BTC halving also shows similar cyclical characteristics:
Halving ⇒ Breaking through previous high: The 17/21 cycles lasted 203/210 days respectively. This round corresponds to November 24. It can be foreseen that November/December this year will be a very important node, and we will be ready to welcome the bull market after the interest rate cut is implemented.
In addition, pay attention to the risk of sharp declines.
Why can some people in the market make 5 times or 10 times their money, while others can only ride on a roller coaster?
Let me get straight to the point. When you are executing the strategy of cashing in profits, you must be self-consistent and know how to rationalize your strategy. There has been a popular saying in the crypto before. In the crypto and in the market, you don't need much. We only need two 10 times, or three 5 times. These profits are enough for us to move up a level. So if your goal is 3 times, you must start to use the 3x strategy to execute. You must be self-consistent when executing and know how to rationalize your steps in line with your own logic.
Just like I started to withdraw my principal when it doubled, and then it started to increase a lot, and increased by another 3-4 times, and I missed the subsequent increase.
But if you keep thinking like this at this time, if you didn’t sell it at that time, and didn’t sell it when it doubled, but held on for a while, maybe you would have made 5 times the money.
If you think like this repeatedly, you are abusing yourself. It is enough as long as the reasons for your strategy are appropriate. Investing is meant to make our lives better. Don't let it become a burden to you and don't let it continue to affect you.
Just like when the market fell before, there are still a group of people who repeatedly wondered why they didn't clear their positions when the BTC was 70,000, why they didn't clear their positions when the copycat market was particularly popular in March and April, and how much their accounts were worth at the top, and how much they are worth now. When you compare these, it's like buying a lottery ticket and you feel you can win if you are one digit short, but as you think about it, you are actually a million miles away from winning. This is because you didn't think about it in advance, you didn't plan in advance which timing and which position would trigger the sell. Don't have this meaningless emotional consumption.
Summary: Set goals for yourself ahead of time, and strictly follow your strategy regardless of external factors. Set goals, stick to the rules, and execute them!
The market right now is just like what I said before, there is no driving force. The current drivers of the rise and fall are all being harvested by the main players. Such a market is very unhealthy.
The best strategy for this kind of market is not to buy the dips at the bottom or to sell at the top, but to wait and see. Ever since the Bitcoin ETF was passed, the market has been a beast. Wall Street has opened a big casino. If you bet long, it will open short, and if you bet short, it will open long. The casino always makes money.
What you can do next is to participate in the opportunities of short selling and new listings without losing your capital, and you must keep yourself in cash flow. Only when the cash flow is sufficient can a person maintain a clear state of thinking and decision-making. There are still 3 days left in August, and the coming September will attract much attention from the market because there are several major events in September.
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? Binance founder CZ is released from prison.
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