Odaily星球日报讯 尽管澳洲联储主席布洛克暗示近期不会降息，货币市场一直在押注澳洲联储会降息。然而本周公布的数据显示，7 月份澳大利亚通胀率略高于经济学家的预期，降息押注开始消退。 市场目前已将澳洲联储 11 月降息的可能性从数据公布前的 56%降至 42%。不过，市场仍然预计澳洲联储 12 月降息的可能性为 88%，因为根据目前的市场定价，到那时美联储可能已进行两次降息。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 尽管澳洲联储主席布洛克暗示近期不会降息，货币市场一直在押注澳洲联储会降息。然而本周公布的数据显示，7 月份澳大利亚通胀率略高于经济学家的预期，降息押注开始消退。市场目前已将澳洲联储 11 月降息的可能性从数据公布前的 56%降至 42%。不过，市场仍然预计澳洲联储 12 月降息的可能性为 88%，因为根据目前的市场定价，到那时美联储可能已进行两次降息。（金十）

市场降低对澳洲联储11月降息的押注

Although Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe hinted that there will be no rate cut in the near future, the currency market has been betting on the RBA cutting rates. However, data released this week showed that Australia's inflation rate in July was slightly higher than economists' expectations, and the rate cut bet has started to recede. The market has now reduced the possibility of the RBA cutting rates in November from 56% before the data release to 42%. However, the market still expects an 88% chance of the RBA cutting rates in December, as according to current market pricing, the Federal Reserve may have already cut rates twice by then.

Odaily Odaily News: Despite Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock hinting that there will be no rate cut in the near future, the money market has been betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates. However, data released this week showed that Australia&#39;s inflation rate in July was slightly higher than economists expected, and the rate cut bets began to fade. The market has now reduced the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates in November from 56% before the data was released to 42%. However, the market still expects the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates in December to be 88%, because according to current market pricing, the Federal Reserve may have cut interest rates twice by then. (Jinshi)

Markets reduce bets on RBA rate cut in November

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Federal Reserve Governor Bostic stated that if interest rates need to be raised again after a rate cut, it would not be a good idea. The speed of disinflation has exceeded expectations, while the rise in the unemployment rate has far exceeded my expectations. By historical standards, the labor market remains quite strong. We cannot wait until inflation falls to 2% to change the restrictive policy. We still need to continue our efforts on the inflation problem. This means we should bring forward the rate cut to the third quarter. (Jinshi)

Fed's Bostic: Rate cuts should be brought forward to the third quarter

According to a report by David Meier, an economist at Baosheng Group, if the expectation of a significant interest rate cut in the United States weakens, the US dollar may rebound, but the increase will be limited. He stated: "We do not believe the US dollar will return to the highs of the end of 2022, as high valuation and falling interest rates pose significant resistance to its trend." Currencies such as the British pound, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar are expected to continue to strengthen against the US dollar, as the pace of interest rate cuts in these countries may not be as fast as in the United States. He stated that, in particular, the interest rates of the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand by the end of the year may be higher than that of the United States. (Jinshi)

Julius Baer: The dollar may rebound if expectations of a sharp rate cut weaken, but the gains will be limited

Every August, central bank governors from around the world gather in the ski resort town of Jackson Hole in the American Midwest, Wyoming, to attend the "symposium" organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The bankers take this opportunity to discuss monetary policy and its effectiveness in "managing the economy," particularly in "controlling" inflation and providing the financial system with an appropriate amount of "liquidity."

This year's symposium comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma over whether it should lower the "policy" interest rate, as the economy shows signs of cooling, but the inflation rate remains "stubbornly" declining towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The so-called policy interest rate is the main interest rate used by the United States (and much of the world) to influence the overall level of interest rates and economic activity.