Odaily星球日报讯 根据 Coinbase 发布周报分析指出，自 8 月初去杠杆事件以来，比特币表现一直不及标普 500 指数。Coinbase 分析师 David Duong 和 David Han 表示：“按风险调整后的基准，比特币价格目前低于其三个月平均水平 0.50 个标准差，而标普 500 指数水平实际上高于其三个月平均水平 1.41 个标准差。”Coinbase 分析师认为，比特币近期的价格表现一直不稳定，交易区间相当狭窄，缺乏推动比特币价格上涨的叙事催化剂，以及 9 月是加密货币的季节性艰难时期。分析师还指出，以太坊的表现继续落后于比特币，ETH/BTC 比率达到今年以来新低，这与现货以太坊 ETF 资金外流有关。（TheBlock）

Coinbase分析师：自8月初去杠杆事件以来，比特币表现不及标普500指数

Odaily Odaily reported that according to the weekly analysis released by Coinbase, Bitcoin has been underperforming the S&amp;P 500 since the deleveraging event in early August. Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han said: &quot;On a risk-adjusted basis, the price of Bitcoin is currently 0.50 standard deviations below its three-month average, while the S&amp;P 500 index level is actually 1.41 standard deviations above its three-month average.&quot; Coinbase analysts believe that Bitcoin&#39;s recent price performance has been unstable, the trading range is quite narrow, there is a lack of narrative catalysts to drive Bitcoin prices up, and September is a seasonally difficult period for cryptocurrencies. Analysts also pointed out that Ethereum&#39;s performance continues to lag behind Bitcoin, and the ETH/BTC ratio has reached a new low this year, which is related to the outflow of funds from the spot Ethereum ETF. (TheBlock)

Coinbase analyst: Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 since the deleveraging event in early August

The previous dehydration view pointed out that the Trump trade is declining, and the non-farm data is most likely favorable. However, the reality is that the non-farm data exceeded expectations, the unemployment data fell too much, triggering the Samuelson rule, leading to market expectations that the economy will experience a recession, or even a severe recession. As a result, the risk assets that were originally rotated under the expectation of interest rate cuts suddenly turned into expectations of trade recession, and various funds fled.

At the same time, the selling pressure from the cryptocurrency industry in Mentougou has not been completely eliminated, and on July 30th, there was news of abnormal movements in the Bitcoin held by the US government, further suppressing market sentiment, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin.

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Dehydrated view: Bitcoin is under pressure from both inside and outside

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bitfinex analysts stated that the lack of liquidity may continue until September, making it difficult for Bitcoin to overcome the resistance level of $63,900, and the current price is unable to break through the actual holding cost of $63,900 for short-term holders (STH). Additionally, Mt.Gox and the US government still have potential selling pressure of nearly $15 billion. The US government holds over 203,000 BTC, worth $12.1 billion, while Mt.Gox will distribute another 46,000 BTC, worth over $2.7 billion. According to a report by cryptocurrency data provider Kaiko on August 29, Mt.Gox plans to distribute $2.7 billion on Kraken by the end of 2024, but it may not have a significant impact on the market. During the previous $4 billion major distribution, Mt.Gox creditors did not sell in large quantities. As of the end of July, Mt.Gox creditors received BTC worth nearly $4 billion, accounting for 41.5% of the payments owed to users, and according to a glassnode report on July 29, most Mt.Gox creditors chose not to sell. "Creditors chose to accept BTC instead of fiat currency, and only a small portion of the compensated BTC will actually be sold in the market."

Analysis: Bitcoin short-term holders cost $63,900, lack of liquidity will continue until September

Author: Esme Zheng, OKX Ventures

In the current market environment, "Real-World Assets" (RWA) are rapidly emerging. In July this year, CoinGecko pointed out in its Q2 2024 Crypto Industry Report that MEME Coins, Artificial Intelligence, and RWA have become the hottest categories, accounting for 77.5% of web traffic.

Traditional financial giants such as Citi, BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan Chase have also joined the fray. According to Dune Analyti...