Bitcoin fell back to $58,000, continuing its lackluster performance, but next week could bring expectations of gains.
August has been a tough month for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin set to end the month with a double-digit percentage drop.
Bitcoin price 8/30 (CoinDesk)
- Bitcoin continued to move flat to lower on Friday and is now down 12% in August.
- A notable trend over the past few weeks has been Bitcoin rising during the Asian trading session and falling during the U.S. trading session.
- Volatility could return to the upside next week as new data on the US economy is released.
Bitcoin has again moved lower during U.S. trading hours over the past few weeks, with prices sliding back to $58,000 by noon Eastern Time.
Currently trading at $58,200, Bitcoin is down about 4.4% over the past 24 hours, outperforming the 5.6% drop in the overall market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index. Index components such as Ethereum (ETH), Chainlink (LINK) and Cardano (ADA) have fallen more than Bitcoin. The worst performer is Solana (SOL), which is down 9%.
With just over 24 hours left in August, Bitcoin is down more than 12% this month, completely erasing its strong July gains. Ethereum is down 25% this month, trimming its year-to-date gains to 7%. Solana is also down 25%, up 31% year-to-date.
Buy in Asia, sell in the U.S.
Those who see some déjà vu in this weak price action aren’t wrong. “Asia buying, U.S. selling,” Miles Deutscher wrote early Friday. According to Deutscher, Bitcoin has seen cumulative gains of more than 5% during Asian trading hours over the past two weeks, while seeing negative gains during U.S. trading hours.
“Like clock,” he added minutes ago as Bitcoin once again sold off in early U.S. trading.
Is a trend change imminent?
Despite positive factors such as increased institutional adoption, a potentially friendlier regulatory environment and an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut, the price of bitcoin has fallen more than 20% since hitting an all-time high of nearly $73,500 more than five months ago.
It may be hard for bulls to imagine anything that could break this weak trend at the moment, but as the U.S. Labor Day holiday ends next week, the market may get excited as a new wave of economic reports could change the macro situation.
The key data point for next week is the August non-farm payrolls report, which will be released on Friday, September 6. The weak July jobs report could be the final straw that forces the Fed to commit to a September rate cut. However, the market currently expects only a small 25 basis point rate cut in mid-September. However, if there is a second consecutive weak jobs report, investors may quickly raise the Fed's rate cut expectations to 50 basis points, bringing a strong positive shock to risk markets, including Bitcoin.
Of course, if the September jobs report is strong, market expectations for loose monetary policy may cool. Whatever happens, volatility may be waiting ahead, and the probability of upside volatility is about 50%. This is all the bulls can hope for now.
