Speculative traders turn bearish on dollar for first time since February

According to Mars Finance, the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that hedge funds, asset managers and other participants in the futures market were bearish on the dollar in the week ending August 27. The last time a net short position in the U.S. dollar was held was in February, when traders prematurely expected about six interest rate cuts in 2024. The U.S. dollar fell 1.6% in August, the biggest monthly drop so far this year. Traders have been pushing down the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields as they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in September. But this time, Fed officials have made it clear that they intend to start cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020. Swap traders are now pricing in a rate cut of a full percentage point by the Fed this year.