Odaily星球日报讯 据 Spot On Chain 分析，虽然 9 月份比特币通常会出现下跌，但这并不是必然的，原因包括： 1、在 7 月和 8 月，三个主要抛售力量已经向市场出售了 170,917 枚 BTC（106.9 亿美元），包括： 德国政府： - 7 月初出售 49,859 枚 BTC（30 亿美元） -不再持有 BTC Mt.Gox： -在 7 月和 8 月偿还了 95,958 枚 BTC（60.7 亿美元） -仍然持有 44,898 枚 BTC（26.5 亿美元），仅为初始持仓的三分之一 Genesis Trading： - 8 月 2 日分发了 24,068 枚 BTC（15.5 亿美元）用于偿还； -不再持有 BTC 2、需要注意的是，美国政府仍然持有没收的 203,650 枚 BTC（120 亿美元），就像德国政府的情况一样，这可能是一个很大的抛售力量，不过近期抛售风险有限。 在 2023 年和 2024 年，美国政府将 35,516 枚 BTC（14.8 亿美元）以约 41,637 美元的价格转移到 Coinbase，但总体而言，价格反应很弱，因为大多数出售都是通过场外交易完成的，对市场的影响很小。 3、长期持有者坚定持有： 8 月份，长期持有者的比特币供应量增加了 26.2 万枚，使其总持有量达到 1482 万枚，占总供应量的 75%。 在排名前 10 的匿名比特币钱包中，有 7 个钱包已经闲置超过 2 年，持有 237,816 枚 BTC（140.4 亿美元），占流通供应量的 1.2%。 4、比特币 ETF 可以成为一股新的买入力量： 经过几个月的复苏，8 月份的净资金流略有下降，这使得 9 月份的前景不明朗。 然而，如果正负交替的模式继续下去，9 月份可能会出现正的净流入，可能在 5 亿至 15 亿美元之间。虽然这只是一个估计，但过去的趋势表明，资金流入可能会反弹。 5、潜在的买入催化剂： -美联储可能会在 9 月份降息，这可能会提振对比特币或比特币 ETF 等风险资产的需求； -FTX 将以现金偿还债权人 160 亿美元，而不是加密货币，这些现金可以重新注入比特币和整个市场； -美国两个选举政党都表示支持有利的加密监管，这可以进一步增强投资者的信心。

Odaily星球日报讯 据 Spot On Chain 分析，虽然 9 月份比特币通常会出现下跌，但这并不是必然的，原因包括：1、在 7 月和 8 月，三个主要抛售力量已经向市场出售了 170,917 枚 BTC（106.9 亿美元），包括：德国政府：- 7 月初出售 49,859 枚 BTC（30 亿美元）-不再持有 BTCMt.Gox：-在 7 月和 8 月偿还了 95,958 枚 BTC（60.7 亿美元）-仍然持有 44,898 枚 BTC（26.5 亿美元），仅为初始持仓的三分之一Genesis Trading：- 8 月 2 日分发了 24,068 枚 BTC（15.5 亿美元）用于偿还；-不再持有 BTC2、需要注意的是，美国政府仍然持有没收的 203,650 枚 BTC（120 亿美元），就像德国政府的情况一样，这可能是一个很大的抛售力量，不过近期抛售风险有限。在 2023 年和 2024 年，美国政府将 35,516 枚 BTC（14.8 亿美元）以约 41,637 美元的价格转移到 Coinbase，但总体而言，价格反应很弱，因为大多数出售都是通过场外交易完成的，对市场的影响很小。3、长期持有者坚定持有：8 月份，长期持有者的比特币供应量增加了 26.2 万枚，使其总持有量达到 1482 万枚，占总供应量的 75%。在排名前 10 的匿名比特币钱包中，有 7 个钱包已经闲置超过 2 年，持有 237,816 枚 BTC（140.4 亿美元），占流通供应量的 1.2%。4、比特币 ETF 可以成为一股新的买入力量：经过几个月的复苏，8 月份的净资金流略有下降，这使得 9 月份的前景不明朗。然而，如果正负交替的模式继续下去，9 月份可能会出现正的净流入，可能在 5 亿至 15 亿美元之间。虽然这只是一个估计，但过去的趋势表明，资金流入可能会反弹。5、潜在的买入催化剂：-美联储可能会在 9 月份降息，这可能会提振对比特币或比特币 ETF 等风险资产的需求；-FTX 将以现金偿还债权人 160 亿美元，而不是加密货币，这些现金可以重新注入比特币和整个市场；-美国两个选举政党都表示支持有利的加密监管，这可以进一步增强投资者的信心。

分析：因主要抛售力量减弱等因素，比特币或可打破“9月下跌”常规

According to the analysis by Spot On Chain, although Bitcoin usually experiences a decline in September, this is not necessarily the case. The reasons include:

1. In July and August, three major selling forces have sold 170,917 BTC (USD 10.69 billion) to the market, including:
   - The German government: - Sold 49,859 BTC (USD 3 billion) in early July - No longer holds BTC
   - Mt.Gox: - Repaid 95,958 BTC (USD 60.7 billion) in July and August - Still holds 44,898 BTC (USD 26.5 billion), only one-third of the initial holding
   - Genesis Trading: - Distributed 24,068 BTC (USD 15.5 billion) on August 2 for repayment; - No longer holds BTC

2. It should be noted that the US government still holds the confiscated 203,650 BTC (USD 12 billion), which could be a significant selling force, similar to the case of the German government, but the risk of near-term selling is limited. In 2023 and 2024, the US government will transfer 35,516 BTC (USD 1.48 billion) at a price of around USD 41,637 to Coinbase, but the overall price reaction is weak, as most of the sales are conducted through over-the-counter transactions, with little impact on the market.

3. Long-term holders are firmly holding: In August, the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders increased by 262,000, bringing their total holdings to 14.82 million, accounting for 75% of the total supply. Among the top 10 anonymous Bitcoin wallets, 7 wallets have been idle for more than 2 years, holding 237,816 BTC (USD 14.04 billion), accounting for 1.2% of the circulating supply.

4. Bitcoin ETFs can become a new buying force: After several months of recovery, the net capital inflow in August has slightly decreased, making the outlook for September uncertain. However, if the pattern of alternating positive and negative continues, September may see a positive net inflow, possibly between USD 500 million and USD 1.5 billion. Although this is just an estimate, past trends suggest that capital inflows may rebound.

5. Potential buying catalysts:
   - The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September, which could boost demand for risk assets such as Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs.
   - FTX will repay creditors USD 16 billion in cash, not in cryptocurrencies, and these cash funds can be reinvested into Bitcoin and the entire market.
   - Both major US political parties have expressed support for favorable crypto regulations, which can further boost investor confidence.

Odaily Odaily News According to Spot On Chain analysis, although Bitcoin usually falls in September, this is not inevitable. The reasons include: 1. In July and August, three major selling forces have sold 170,917 BTC (US$10.69 billion) to the market, including: German government: - Sold 49,859 BTC (US$3 billion) in early July - No longer holds BTC Mt. Gox: - Repaid 95,958 BTC (US$6.07 billion) in July and August - Still holds 44,898 BTC (US$2.65 billion), only one-third of the initial holdings Genesis Trading: - Distributed 24,068 BTC (US$1.55 billion) for repayment on August 2; - No longer holds BTC 2. It should be noted that the US government still holds 203,650 BTC (US$12 billion) confiscated, just like the case of the German government. This may be a large selling force, but the risk of selling in the near term is limited. In 2023 and 2024, the U.S. government transferred 35,516 BTC ($1.48 billion) to Coinbase at about $41,637, but overall, the price reaction was weak because most sales were done over-the-counter and had little impact on the market. 3. Long-term holders hold firmly: In August, long-term holders increased their Bitcoin supply by 262,000, bringing their total holdings to 14.82 million, accounting for 75% of the total supply. Among the top 10 anonymous Bitcoin wallets, 7 wallets have been idle for more than 2 years, holding 237,816 BTC ($14.04 billion), accounting for 1.2% of the circulating supply. 4. Bitcoin ETFs can become a new buying force: After several months of recovery, net fund flows fell slightly in August, making the outlook for September unclear. However, if the alternating positive and negative patterns continue, September could see positive net inflows, possibly between $500 million and $1.5 billion. While this is just an estimate, past trends suggest that inflows could rebound. 5. Potential buying catalysts: - The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September, which could boost demand for risky assets such as Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs; - FTX will repay creditors $16 billion in cash, not cryptocurrencies, which can be re-injected into Bitcoin and the market as a whole; - Both U.S. electoral parties have expressed support for favorable crypto regulation, which can further boost investor confidence.

Analysis: Bitcoin may break the "September decline" routine due to factors such as weakening of major selling forces

According to the news from Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market may have to face potential turmoil in the coming months, as several major Bitcoin (BTC) holders - including defunct exchanges and government entities - may liquidate their large holdings. The latest report from crypto data provider Kaiko reveals that the crypto market is currently facing a serious oversupply problem. This has been an ongoing theme throughout the summer, with forced sell-offs and bankruptcy crypto asset liquidations causing selling pressure at different stages from May to August. Dragonfly general partner Rob Hadick said that Bitcoin prices faced immense pressure this summer, mainly due to the Mt. Gox issuance, yen arbitrage trades, and weakening demand. "The market is still concerned about the pressure from government holdings and additional Mt. Gox issuance," he said. One of the main sources of market anxiety is the ongoing redistribution of funds to Mt. Gox creditors. The bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange still holds over 46,000 BTC, worth over $2 billion, which will eventually be redistributed. Fideum co-founder Darren Franceschini, when discussing the potential impact of this distribution, stated that according to forecasts, these BTC worth over $2.7 billion could almost all be sold - if creditors sell their entire BTC holdings, it could add an additional $8.2 billion in selling pressure. Other major holders may also intensify selling pressure in the near future. For example, the US government holds BTC worth over $2 billion. Additionally, he added that other countries, including the UK, China, and Ukraine, also have large BTC reserves.  Bartosz Lipiński, CEO of the cryptocurrency trading platform Cube.Exchange, said that "if the authorities start to liquidate their crypto holdings on a large scale, the 'Christmas rally' that crypto enthusiasts often see may not be realized for the first time this year."

Opinion: Excess supply in the market may continue to push down BTC prices

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bitfinex analysts stated that the lack of liquidity may continue until September, making it difficult for Bitcoin to overcome the resistance level of $63,900, and the current price is unable to break through the actual holding cost of $63,900 for short-term holders (STH). Additionally, Mt.Gox and the US government still have potential selling pressure of nearly $15 billion. The US government holds over 203,000 BTC, worth $12.1 billion, while Mt.Gox will distribute another 46,000 BTC, worth over $2.7 billion. According to a report by cryptocurrency data provider Kaiko on August 29, Mt.Gox plans to distribute $2.7 billion on Kraken by the end of 2024, but it may not have a significant impact on the market. During the previous $4 billion major distribution, Mt.Gox creditors did not sell in large quantities. As of the end of July, Mt.Gox creditors received BTC worth nearly $4 billion, accounting for 41.5% of the payments owed to users, and according to a glassnode report on July 29, most Mt.Gox creditors chose not to sell. "Creditors chose to accept BTC instead of fiat currency, and only a small portion of the compensated BTC will actually be sold in the market."

Analysis: Bitcoin short-term holders cost $63,900, lack of liquidity will continue until September

Bitcoin traders expect that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.50%, BTC will rise, but it is also necessary to hedge these bullish positions. Here is the operation method.

BTC has failed to close above $62,000 multiple times since August 3, and has declined 11% in the past 30 days. More notably, the cryptocurrency has decoupled from the S&P 500 index, which has risen 1% over the same period and is only 1% below its all-time high.

[Risk] Bitcoin price (in US dollars) (right) and S&P 500 futures (left) 12-month chart.

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