Bitcoin has been falling continuously since it briefly touched US$65,000 on August 26. In the early morning of the 2nd, it plunged again to a low of US$57,116, the lowest in two weeks.
Is Bitcoin Really Spelled to Fall in September?
Now as September approaches, what worries investors is whether the curse will strike again? In the chart below, we can observe the monthly return of Bitcoin and find that in the past 11 years (2013 to 2023), Bitcoin has generally performed poorly in September, with 8 declines and a probability of decline as high as 73%.
In addition, judging from the average monthly return, September was also the month with the largest decline, with a decline of as much as 4.78%.
On the other hand, based on the performance of the Nasdaq Index over the past ten years (2014 to 2023), September also fell eight times, with a probability of decline as high as 80%. Cryptocurrencies may also be affected due to a degree of correlation between them and U.S. stocks.
A summary of the good and bad factors in September
Although judging from historical data, the market does seem to have a "September Curse", but it is not the only basis for decision-making. Let’s quickly sort out the positive and negative elements of the market in September for readers:
Negative factors:
1. According to Arkham Intelligence data , although Mt. Gox has repaid most of its Bitcoins, its wallet still holds more than 40,000 BTCs. Continued repayments may still pose risks to the price.
2. The U.S. government transferred nearly $600 million in Bitcoin related to Silk Road in mid-August. It is unclear whether it is for escrow or preparation for sale.
3. Analysts pointed out that the actual entry price of short-term BTC holders is currently around $63,250. Since mid-June, BTC has been difficult to break through this level. Analysts warned that before BTC can re-convert this area into a support level , the market may face continued selling pressure.
Pros:
1. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September are currently very high. If there are no surprises in this week's August non-farm payrolls data, it will further deepen the Fed's confidence in cutting interest rates.
2. Taking stock of the performance of the S&P 500 Index before the past nine U.S. presidential elections, the probability of U.S. stocks rising in the three months before the election is 78% , which may also help the trend of Bitcoin.
3. CryptoQuant data points out that the selling pressure from Bitcoin miners is weakening and may form an upward momentum if absorbed.
