September is often a fraught month for Bitcoin investors, as it has historically been a poor month for the cryptocurrency.
Although the US personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) for July, released on August 30, slowed down, which further strengthened the market's confidence in the Federal Reserve's September rate cut, the classic September sell-off has hit, causing Bitcoin to fall from around $59,000 since 6 a.m. this morning, and fell as low as $57,128 at 1 p.m., a drop of more than 2%.
Classic Low Tide Raid
September is generally considered a downturn for risky assets, but considering that the sharp market volatility in August may have released some of the anxiety, we are cautiously optimistic about the market performance in September.
Historically, Bitcoin has delivered negative returns for traders in September. The current cycle is considered different from previous ones, with the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF this year and increasing institutional demand for the asset.
If institutional capital continues to flow into Bitcoin spot ETFs and drives sustained demand for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin prices could remain above the critical support level of $60,000.
But the current BTC ETF inflow is slowing down, the market lacks funds, and there is no big reason for the BTC to rise. However, there is a relatively strong support at 57,000. The WR index of BTC has fallen to a low of -85 in a few months. If it falls below 57,000, it will quickly pull back. 63,000 is the cost price of short-term buyers. The cost of BTC ETF buyers is above 50,000, and it is difficult to fall to 40,000.
The market has digested the selling pressure and turbulence. After the interest rate cut, there is money in the market, and it may usher in a rebound in mid-to-late September. But it should be noted that when the market rises, don't be too impulsive and say that there are still ten or a hundred times of it. When it falls, don't be dominated by panic and sell at the bottom!
This week's news focus will be on the release of non-farm data on Friday, but we should also pay attention to whether the market can hold the 56,000 level in the next few days. If it falls below, it will only accelerate the downward correction of the market.
Many major upcoming events:
9.6 Big Non-Farm.
9.10 US presidential debate.
9.11 US CPI in August.
9.18 Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
9.29 CZ was released from prison.
How do you view the upcoming market trends and opportunities?
The external environment is the uncertainty in the certainty of this round of big cycle market. Interest rate hikes, interest rate cuts, and wars are all pains in the economic cycle, and are the process of rebirth from death. As long as the world does not perish, it will continue in a cycle. What we are betting on is the probability of certainty. In fact, we are betting on the destination of the funds from the Fed's interest rate cut. In addition to gold and silver, Bitcoin may be a new reservoir for the US dollar. Moreover, the historical law is generally that the market rises before the interest rate cut, and the interest rate cut will be adjusted, and then the bull market will start after the adjustment. Therefore, the market rose first and then adjusted in September, ending the shock that lasted for more than half a year. We won if we survive September.
But next, the short-term selling pressure in the market will continue, and we will face a more difficult situation and unpredictable price fluctuations. Since there is no main reason affecting the currency price now, multiple factors are mixed in the impact, and the market lacks a main tone, it is difficult to predict. But if we look at the long-term trend of interest rate cuts, the price of Bitcoin will definitely rise in the long run, but it is very difficult to make a profit in the short term.
The opportunities that I am more optimistic about in the near future should be in Brc20 assets and Fractal. They are not new technologies, but they are currently the most suitable off-chain expansion of Bitcoin chain assets. Developed by the Unisat team that successfully launched ordi Sats Pizza, they will further unleash the liquidity potential of Brc20 assets. It is not that their technology is better, but the trust of community users and relatively complete infrastructure links.
And the Bitcoin extension network Fractal Bitcoin is scheduled to be launched on the mainnet on September 9. This expectation is in favor of the market, which is good for the BRC20 ecosystem, and runes will also receive attention (not directly good). It is worth mentioning that CZ's release from prison is also a good expectation for BNB.
Summarize
I think the market will correct to this point. I have two predictions for September. First, if the Fed cuts interest rates, global capital will flow back, the industry will recover, and cryptocurrencies will start a bull market. Second, if the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates in September, the market will continue to experience violent fluctuations in September until the bull market starts in October. So whether the Fed cuts interest rates or maintains high interest rates, this year's bull market will not be affected. Just hold on to your chips. Adjusting your positions at a low level at this time point may be an opportunity to maximize profits in this bull market.
