GM September Outlook is here.
September is still a dangerous month for me and I would not consider making too many trades (currently short).
wait.
This article aims to describe the tracks and targets that I will focus on in September from my personal perspective in simpler and more precise language.
TLDR
1. Optimistic about $BTC ecosystem, BTC pledge, wBTC competitors ($T) and inscriptions/runes ($SATS $ORDI), as well as $RUNE;
2. Uniswap v4 $UNI, which is optimistic about DeFi, is the most important catalyst for the current DeFi ecosystem ($COW is also making some small moves);
3. The cold reception of Solana ecosystem may give us an opportunity to buy the dips. I think $JTO $CLOUD $DRIFT $KMNO These targets are pretty good. Let’s see which one can attract market attention.
4. Be cautious when considering RWA targets. $MPL and $CPOOL are two projects worth paying attention to;
5. MakerDAO’s name change provides an opportunity for market speculation, which may also be beneficial $LQTY;
6. CZ’s release from prison is a good expectation for $BNB;
7. Pendle is moving closer to BTCFi;
1/ BTC Ecosystem
The three main things related to the BTC ecosystem are:
The "market interest in $BTC staking" triggered by Bayblon is, to put it bluntly, a nesting doll;
While wBTC is widely questioned, other younger brothers have opportunities: 1) Coinbase launches $cbBTC; 2) former younger brother Threshold $tBTC has gained huge room for growth; 3) Stack sBTC's cross-chain adoption after Satoshi Nakamoto's upgrade, etc.
PS In the future, the competition among various types of packaged BTC will become more and more fierce. The market may pay attention to cross-chain protocols that support native BTC, such as Thorchain $RUNE. Also, tBTC operator Threshold proposed to merge with wBTC, but I think it is not realistic.
Fractal Bitcoin, the Bitcoin extension network, is scheduled to launch the mainnet on September 9. This expected market is buying orders, which is good for the BRC20 ecosystem, and runes will also receive attention at that time (not directly good).
(If there is anything I haven't mentioned, please feel free to add it)
2/ DeFi
Recently, many people have been supporting old DeFi projects, such as $AAVE (Aave’s recent fundamentals are very good).
It should be pointed out that although Aave has made a lot of plans for future token economics some time ago, I think it will take a long time for these plans to be realized. In addition, Aave hopes to maintain the peg between GHO and the US dollar by integrating BlackRock BUIDL.
Recently, I will pay special attention to $UNI. From the announcement on August 15 that Uniswap Labs will cooperate with Uniswap Foundation and Cantina to launch a V4 security competition with a prize pool of $2.35 million, Uniswap v4 is about to be launched (previously expected to be launched in Q3). The importance of Uniswap v4 has been analyzed by many people, so I will not repeat it. I will find an article for you to read: https://www.theblockbeats.info/news/42643
I think the launch of Uniswap v4 is of great significance and is the most important catalyst for the DeFi ecosystem at present (and it seems that no one is talking about it in the Chinese area now).
It is also worth mentioning that Cow Protocol may also be aware of the threat of Uniswap v4 and is working with Wintermute to seek CEX Listings and better liquidity on the chain.
3/ Solana
The most interesting thing about Solana ecosystem is memecoin. You can check out which memecoins English KOLs are Shilling. You can follow my list: https://x.com/i/lists/1795371206344130752
The second is the most profitable protocols in the Solana ecosystem, such as Jito $JTO / Raydium $RAY / Jupiter $JUP / Banana $BANANA
And some other applications that have captured market attention/liquidity: Drift $DRIFT / Kamino $KMNO / Sanctum $CLOUD
Here are some of the coins I have on my watchlist:
Jito — closely related to the prosperity of the Solana ecosystem;
Sanctum - LST liquidity layer, recently CEX joined the game$SOL staking, which is a positive for it;
A more detailed description is available here: https://x.com/alphawifhat/status/1829428266580812192
Kamino — Solana’s liquidity layer, accounting for 28% of Solana’s total TVL.
Banana - the only TG Bot listed on Binance (except Bonk).
Here is another idea of mine: With the market's aversion to VC infrastructure tokens last time, memecoin has become the new darling of the market. When the market gradually returns to rationality, fully circulated application tokens and application tokens with a large amount of real cash income may become the next hype concept in the market (I don't mean to say that meme is bad). I hope it's not my wishful thinking.
4/ RWA (Please consider RWA related targets carefully)
As I mentioned in my August Outlook, I really like Maple. I will update you on the latest developments of Maple.
1) Maple's fundamentals are growing well;
2) Coming in Q4, $MPL will be split 1:100 and renamed SYRUP. The income from the lending business will be used to repurchase SYRUP.
Another project worth watching is Clearpool - a protocol for institutional lending.
Clearpool launched a Layer2 Ozean based on RWA income/OP Stack: 1) The Gas medium is a stable currency called USDX; 2) The chain also does account abstraction; 3) $CPOOL will manage Ozean and Clearpool, and $CPOOL can obtain Ozean's sorter income.
However, judging from the price behavior, the market is not buying it.
However, investing in the RWA track right now feels a bit like joining the National Army in 1949, so please be cautious before pressing the buy button.
5/ Stablecoins
When talking about stablecoins, one thing that cannot be avoided is the name change of MakerDAO. This name change has both advantages and disadvantages. The name Sky is simple and easy to remember, and USDS is more direct than the name DAI, which is good for expanding new increments. At the same time, Sky has also created more adoption scenarios for USDS, such as mining Subdao tokens. @tmel0211 also mentioned the bad points, such as "USDS has added a blacklist freezing function." This has also triggered a series of controversies in the community.
It is also worth mentioning that in order to encourage migration, MakerDAO has set additional rewards.
Join early and get boosted Sky Token Rewards: https://x.com/SkyEcosystem/status/1828799015267307888
Looking at it from another angle, if DAI is no longer decentralized, it will be good for other decentralized stablecoins, such as $LQTY.
6/ Others
· 9.4 $MATIC - $POL renamed;
Fantom new Layer1 Sonic testnet;
Arbitrum Stylus upgrade; 9.28 CZ or release from prison;
Eigenlayer Q3 should also see some major project progress and EIGEN token transfer;
· Eigenpie IDO (if you have accumulated points before, remember to participate. 3M's FDV is likely to make money);
Berachain may be launched on the mainnet in Q3;
There are still some projects that may hold TGE (but considering the sluggish market, their TGE time may be postponed): Solv, Grass, DappOS, StakeStone, KelpDAO;
Singapore Token2049 (Does it always fall at every meeting?)
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