How will Bitcoin perform in September? Institutions and analysts have very different views

Entering September, given the previous historical performance, many investors began to worry that Bitcoin has entered the "death month", because historically, Bitcoin usually ends in a decline in September, but some analysts do not think so. Let's take a look at the results of institutional research and analysts' views on the market in September in the past few days.

CryptoQuant Research Director: Bitcoin is expected to close at around $55,000 in September

On September 3, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, released a simulation forecast of Bitcoin's price trend in September. According to the simulation results, Bitcoin prices may drop slightly in September, and the price is expected to be around $55,000 at the end of the month. The simulation chart shows that Bitcoin prices will fluctuate between $44,000 and $66,000 most of the time. However, Moreno specifically pointed out that these simulation forecasts are only calculated based on Bitcoin's historical daily yield data in September.

Previously, on August 30, Julio Moreno wrote that the Bitcoin market cycle indicator is once again in a bear market phase. From a price perspective, if the Bitcoin price falls below $56,000, the risk of a larger correction will increase.

10x Research: Market structure and fundamentals have gradually weakened, with each decline becoming deeper and the recovery weaker

10x Research posted on social media that while it remains optimistic about the medium- and long-term prospects of digital assets, it now seems that caution is needed in the short term. Although the market experienced a V-shaped rebound after the declines in early May, early July, and early August, the underlying market structure and fundamentals have gradually weakened, resulting in each decline becoming deeper and the subsequent recovery being weaker. The latest month-end data suggests that the market may usher in a key turning point in September.

Previously, on August 28, 10x Research said in its analysis that the recent rebound in the Bitcoin market was strategic, and $65,000 was crucial to book profits. As expected, the FOMC meeting minutes and Powell's dovish stance drove the rebound in Bitcoin, and the potential short squeeze pushed up the price of Bitcoin. However, despite its predicted increase of 10%, these gains have now been fully waived, and major risks are beginning to emerge as September approaches.

Wolfe Research analyst: Bitcoin may return to the low $50,000 area in the coming weeks

On September 2, Rob Ginsberg, a chart analyst at Wolfe Research, said: "The current situation in the entire cryptocurrency field is not optimistic. Bitcoin is still trapped in a downward channel and the price is gradually falling from the high in March. Although a short-term breakthrough will be very positive, we still respect this general trend. Bitcoin may return to the bottom of the range in the next few weeks, that is, the low of $50,000. Since peaking in March, Bitcoin's trend has been deteriorating, with a series of lows and lows. Unless this trend changes, whether it is a breakthrough or a more gradual reversal, we will continue to be bearish on Bitcoin's short- to medium-term price. "

Bitfinex Alpha: The rate hike will stimulate the rise, but then it will pull back, and the bottom of BTC may be between $40,000-50,000

On September 2, Bitfinex Alpha said in its latest report that this month's U.S. interest rate decision is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trend. Since the beginning of August, Bitcoin has risen by more than 32%, driven by market participants' expectations that the Federal Reserve will make dovish remarks. A 25 basis point rate cut may mark the beginning of a typical easing cycle, and Bitcoin may achieve long-term price increases as liquidity increases and recession concerns ease. On the other hand, a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut may lead to price increases, but may be followed by a pullback as recession concerns intensify.

Over the past week, we have seen spot holders reduce risk while perpetual market speculators attempt to “buy the dip,” and we still observe a large number of open long positions in BTC perpetual contracts.

Expecting a 15-20% drop when the rate cut is expected this month, BTC could bottom out between $40,000-50,000, as the cycle peaks in percentage returns are reduced by about 60-70% each cycle, and the average bull market retracement has also declined. But this logic could easily be overturned if macroeconomic conditions change. These are uncertain times for traders. Historically, September has been a volatile month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.78% and a typical peak-to-trough drop of about 24.6%.

Report: https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-what-will-happen-to-btc-when-rates-fall/

BRN analyst: Bitcoin may fall further to around $56,000 on the lower Bollinger Band

On September 2, BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said, “Technical indicators suggest that the downward momentum may continue. MACD shows increasingly negative momentum, while RSI is at a neutral level. The lower track of the Bollinger Band is still around $56,000, which suggests that the price of Bitcoin may fall further to this level.”

Crypto analyst Ali  ：Bitcoin has not yet broken through the key resistance level, the behavior of short-term holders may determine the trend

On September 1, crypto analyst Ali said on the X platform that Bitcoin is currently facing a key price resistance level. Ali emphasized that the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is currently around $63,250, and BTC has been struggling to break through this level since June 22.

Ali explained that in a downtrend, this price level often acts as resistance because short-term holders are more inclined to sell when the price falls below the entry point. The analyst warned that the market may face continued selling pressure before BTC re-converts this area into support.

Bitfinex analyst : Bitcoin short-term holders cost $63,900, lack of liquidity will continue until September

On August 30, Bitfinex analysts said that the lack of liquidity may continue until September, making it difficult for Bitcoin to overcome the resistance level of $63,900. The current price is difficult to break through the actual holding cost of short-term holders (STH) of $63,900. In addition, Mt.Gox and the US government still have nearly $15 billion in potential selling pressure. The US government holds more than 203,000 bitcoins worth $12.1 billion, and Mt.Gox will distribute another 46,000 bitcoins worth more than $2.7 billion. According to an August 29 report by Kaiko, a cryptocurrency analysis provider, Mt.Gox plans to distribute $2.7 billion on Kraken by the end of 2024, but it may not have too much impact on the market. Mt. Gox creditors did not sell a lot during the last major distribution of $4 billion. As of the end of July, Mt. Gox creditors received nearly $4 billion worth of BTC, accounting for 41.5% of the payments owed to users, and according to a July 29 report by Glassnode, most Mt. Gox creditors chose not to sell. "Creditors chose to accept Bitcoin instead of fiat currency, and only a small portion of the compensation Bitcoin will actually be sold on the market."

QCP Capital: Bitcoin may have strong support at $54,000, and the options market still shows medium-term bullish signals

On September 2, QCP Capital's latest analysis pointed out that by analyzing Bitcoin's historical performance in September, it was found that there had been declines in 6 of the past 7 years, with an average decline of 4.5%. If this pattern is repeated this year, the price of Bitcoin may fall to about $55,000. However, analysts expect $54,000 to become a strong support level, a level that successfully supported prices in July and helped push Bitcoin to $70,000.

The report also mentioned that this week's unemployment claims data (September 5) and non-farm payrolls report (September 6) may not have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices, as the impact of recent macroeconomic data on cryptocurrencies has weakened. Despite the short-term market downturn, QCP observed that the options market still showed medium-term bullish signals. The volatility curve is expected to steepen further, while more long option positions are rolled over to March next year. Bitcoin's call option with an expiration date of March 28, 2025 and a strike price of $120,000 increased by 200 contracts today, with an open interest of 2,100 contracts, indicating that investors remain optimistic about the medium-term outlook.

CryptoQuant analyst: On-chain indicators show that Bitcoin is close to a "favorable" buying level, and the Bitcoin price is at or near the lowest point

On September 1, CryptoQuant analyst Grizzly wrote that historical data shows that the range of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple Index between 0.6 and 0.8 can be described as the "Decision Zone."

Analysis of trends over the past decade shows that when the index falls below the 0.6 threshold, it often represents an ideal opportunity for a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. Conversely, a break above the 0.8 level has historically been associated with bullish market behavior, often pushing Bitcoin prices to new all-time highs.

Currently, the S&P Multi-index is fluctuating between these two critical levels. If the historical pattern holds true, a bearish scenario in which the index drops below 0.6 could again present a favorable buying opportunity for investors.

Earlier, on August 30, another CryptoQuant analyst, Woominkyu, released a new analysis report pointing out that the price of Bitcoin is at or near its lowest point. He said that there is a close correlation between the price of Bitcoin hashing power (Hash Price) and the price of Bitcoin, and the current low hashing power price may suggest that the price of Bitcoin is approaching the bottom. Woominkyu explained that the hashing power price reflects the profitability of miners. He showed through a chart that historically when the hashing power price dropped to a lower level (the area marked by the blue box in the figure), it often corresponded to a period when the price of Bitcoin was at or near its lowest point. This historical pattern shows that the trough of the hashing power price often coincides with the moment when the price of Bitcoin hits the bottom.

Spot On Chain Analysis: Bitcoin may break the "September decline" routine due to factors such as weakening of major selling forces

On September 1, Spot On Chain analyzed that although Bitcoin usually falls in September, this is not inevitable for the following reasons:

1. The major selling pressure from Mentougou and the German government has been eliminated.

2. Long-term holders remain strong.

3. BTC ETF can become a new purchasing force.

4. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the US election provide support.

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher: Bitcoin has recently shown a trend of "buying in Asia and selling in the United States", and there may be upward stimulus in the next week

On August 31, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher said that Bitcoin has recently shown a trend of "buy in Asia, sell in the United States". In the past two weeks, the cumulative return rate of Bitcoin in the Asian trading session exceeded 5%, while the US trading session showed negative returns.

The key data next week will be the August non-farm payrolls report on Friday, September 6th. A weak July jobs report could be a catalyst for the Fed to commit to a rate cut in September. However, the market is currently expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in mid-September. But if the second consecutive month of weak jobs data, investors may quickly expect the central bank to take a 50 basis point rate cut, which would provide a strong positive stimulus to risk markets (including Bitcoin). If the September jobs report is strong, next week may bring an upside stimulus, and market expectations for loose monetary policy may be weakened. Regardless of the outcome, volatility is likely to occur in the future, with a probability of about 50% for upward volatility.