The price of Huamen has fallen below 57,000 again. The interest rate cut is coming in September. What will happen next?
Let’s first look at the URPD data of BTC, as follows
The K-line trend has not fallen below 55,600 since the rise on August 8. It recovered the lost ground last night but opened the door again today.
PMI tonight, unemployment rate tomorrow (previous value 4.3, expected 4.2, less than 4.3 is the best, boosting sentiment, increasing expectations of a 25% rate cut this month, currently a 25% rate cut in September is 55%, source CME), non-farm, and then the 9.10 election debate, let's see what Harris and Trump say about encryption, and Harris's proposition. Can it boost sentiment for BTC, and then there will be next week's CPI data, the interest rate meeting at 9.19 in the early morning. The above various influences on market sentiment in between
The K-line has not broken through 59,900 and stabilized in the past week, but has begun to test 55,600. It is also obvious from the urpd data that the upward trend is 58,500, 59,200, 59,900, 60,700, and the downward trend is 55,600. If 55,600 is broken, the next support will be 51,900.
Therefore, if the data and events mentioned above are more negative and liquidity is low, the index will break 55,600. If sentiment can be boosted, the index will fluctuate between 55,600-59,900 and up to 61,000.
It is still the same as what I said before. The September rate cut has been confirmed, it is nothing more than 25% or 50%. At present, the probability of 25% is still high. Although it is not 63.5%, it is still more than 50%.
At this time, especially with the macroeconomic situation in Japan (expectations of Japan's interest rate hike), market sentiment will jump back and forth, making it difficult to predict. Without a strong sense of the market, you still need to pay attention to risks.
As for the altcoins. BTC fell slightly before, and the altcoins fell sharply. Based on the rebound of BTC, the altcoins should stop when they are ahead, and don’t be too greedy (5-10 points is enough). For a real reversal, we should still pay attention to the situation after the interest rate cut is implemented.
The key law of market cycles is
A bull market often starts with a moderate rise, followed by a period of adjustment and volatility, before finally ushering in a spectacular main uptrend. This process can be likened to a marathon, starting with an easy jog to warm up, followed by a steady pace to accumulate energy, and finally an all-out sprint.
About the main tactics in the bull market
In a bull market, before every violent rally, the main force will always do everything possible to suppress prices, forcing retail investors to sell at a loss and leave the market.
After the violent rise, retail investors finally woke up from their dreams: it turned out that this was a trap set by the main force. When the market entered the final crazy stage, many retail investors could not hold back and rushed into the market to get the last bite of meat, hoping to expand their principal and increase their income. However, the result is often that they are firmly trapped at the top of the mountain. So, what is the main force's strategy?
Suppressing prices : The main force creates price drops, making retail investors think that the market cannot hold up and will fall sharply soon, thus inducing them to sell their positions.
Creating an illusion : Account shrinkage is just an illusion. The main force lets you see your account shrinkage, so you can’t help but sell high and buy low.
Cleaning up the chips : When the chips of retail investors decrease, the main force can better control the market and trap the retail investors at a high point
In every bull market, retracement is an unchangeable phenomenon. It is normal to have 10% or even 20% retracement many times. A bull market does not mean a continuous rise. High-level shocks are common. We should not be too idealistic. In the crypto, we should not be too sensitive. We should win with a good mentality and strong execution.
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