Non-farm payrolls are coming tonight! Can they determine the trend of Bitcoin?
The small non-farm ADP was released last night, showing an increase of less than 100,000 jobs, marking the fifth consecutive month of slowing growth, further confirming the cooling of the job market and benefiting the Fed's interest rate cut.
Some people say that the reason for the decline is because of the bad ADP employment data. In fact, it has nothing to do with this. If you look closely at the changes in the U.S. stock market and BTC, you will know that ADP was released at 20:15 Beijing time. After the release, both BTC and U.S. stock futures actually rose. The best evidence is that when the U.S. stock market opened, the S&P opened flat and the Nasdaq fell slightly. At that time, BTC was still in the rebound stage, so the decline has nothing to do with ADP.
Moreover, the ADP data is not bad. The more important data is the non-farm data released in the evening , among which the unemployment rate and wage growth rate are what the Federal Reserve values most. This is not the first time that ADP and non-farm data are diametrically opposed.
At present, the interest rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion, with a high probability of 25 basis points and a small probability of 50 basis points. If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, it will be a big positive.
The unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data released at 20:30 tonight are particularly critical, as the data will determine the extent of the interest rate cut. Be alert to the possibility of exceeding expectations to prevent BTC from falling to 55,000.
The market fluctuated repeatedly, and now Bitcoin is barely holding at 56,000.
The recent market shows typical "monkey market" characteristics
After the continuous correction last week, this week showed obvious ups and downs. The current price trend of Bitcoin is still in a volatile range, and this volatile market can easily wash out investors in short-term fluctuations.
The current position is easier to reverse the bullish trend than the adjustment phase in August, but the market still needs to wait patiently for signal confirmation.
Now we need to have a big picture view and not be confused by the short-term K-line. Now is the large-scale adjustment period of the monthly line. If you still focus on the rebound on the minute line, it is like pushing a car up the downhill road. When you have no strength, you will be run over by the car sooner or later.
Under the current market situation, investors are advised to reduce subjective judgment, respect the actual market signals, and not make blind operations due to short-term market fluctuations.
Be cautious about downside risks:
Focus on the performance of Bitcoin at the 55555 and 56000 support levels. If it falls below, pay close attention to the support area of 53000-54000. If these positions cannot provide effective support, the downside risk may be further increased.
Wait patiently for medium and long-term layout:
In an environment of repeated market fluctuations, it is appropriate to wait for clearer trend signals before making mid- to long-term arrangements. At present, the market has not yet escaped from the range of fluctuations, and any rush to chase the rise or buy the dips may lead to greater losses.
In summary:
Bitcoin's short-term trend still faces great uncertainty. Investors need to remain calm and patient and wait for clearer trend signals to emerge before making decisions.
At this stage, the only way to make as much money as possible is to control your positions well.
There is still some distance to the goal of buy the dips, so be more patient and hold your position. No matter how you operate, you should always keep some free positions in your hands, because the real big ones are yet to come.
This is a time to go against human nature. It is unclear whether the price will continue to fall, but the prices of many high-quality coins at this stage will make you miss them very much when the bull market comes!
Since I haven’t avoided every decline, I won’t miss every rise next time!
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