Against the backdrop of poor U.S. non-farm payrolls data in August, which heightened market concerns about a U.S. economic recession, Bitcoin plunged again over the weekend, falling as deep as $52,550 on the 7th, setting a new low since August 5. As the currency market fell, the market became gloomy. Pacman, the founder of Blur Exchange, bluntly stated yesterday (7th) that the bear market has arrived.
Is Bitcoin about to soar?
However, Julien Bittel, director of macro research at Global Macro Investor, a financial consulting and research institution, tweeted yesterday to share a chart comparing the current trend of Bitcoin with the trend in 2019, pointing out that this year’s Bitcoin price structure is starting to look surprisingly similar to 2019:
Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation has lasted for 175 days (so far).
We are now approaching a critical point with the potential for major developments, and next week will be a very interesting one to watch.
As can be seen from the chart, in 2019, Bitcoin fell all the way from the year's high of US$12,000 in March. By August and September of that year, it had fallen to close to US$6,000. However, Bitcoin then began to fluctuate upward. At the end of the year, it rose back above $10,000 again.
This year, Bitcoin also hit a high of nearly US$74,000 in March, and then gradually declined, falling to below US$50,000 in August, and hovering at more than US$50,000 in September. If compared with 2019, Bitcoin If the trend is consistent, the prediction in the chart shows that Bitcoin will start to bottom out and rise to over $80,000 by the end of the year.
Therefore, Julien Bittel said:
As we reach this potential inflection point, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s reaction. Will the price follow the 2019 playbook, or will it deviate? Let's wait and see, if the trend holds, we could see some significant upward momentum.
Arthur Hayes has closed his short BTC position
At the same time, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who announced on the 6th that he had short Bitcoin and targeted Bitcoin to fall below $50,000 this weekend, seemed to believe that BTC had fallen to a target of $50,000. He announced before noon today that it had leveled off. Short position in BTC:
I have closed my BTC short position and made a profit of 3%, which was enough to pay for my meals and bar bills during my stay at KBW in South Korea. Bitcoin is likely to rise as more USD liquidity is expected to enter the market next week as Yellen keeps a close eye on the market and makes a weekend statement.
Arthur Hayes has previously written that in order to promote the Democratic Party's victory, the Biden administration will use all available tools to inject liquidity into the market before the election to influence the election results, and Treasury Secretary Yellen can issue short-term Treasury bills (T- bill) and reduce the supply of long-term Treasury bonds to increase market liquidity, prompting funds to flow out of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase program (RRP) and enter the market, driving up the prices of risky assets such as Bitcoin.
