According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 69%, which is basically a done deal, neither good nor bad, as expected. In addition, I watched the presidential debate, and Trump was at a disadvantage throughout the whole process, and did not mention cryptocurrency at all .
On Polymarket, Harris's chances of winning the debate just hit 92%.
Trump was anxious at the debate and was beaten by Harris. Regardless of their policy content, Harris won in terms of debate skills and logic.
CPI data affects the market, causing big fluctuations tonight!
8:30pm: US August unadjusted CPI annual rate announced
Previous value: 2.90%
Expected: 2.6%
Announcement below expectations is positive, while announcement above expectations is negative 8.30pm
U.S. August seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate
Previous value: 0.20%
Expected: 0.20%
The announcement was lower than expected, but higher than expected.
Market Overview
Market : The market is somewhat volatile and rebounding, but overall there is still a lack of obvious hot spots. Everyone is waiting for some big news
US stocks : US stocks are also volatile. The market is generally waiting to see tonight's August CPI data. There is no major action for the time being.
Market Analysis
From the current market trend, we can see that the market has adjusted back a bit, and it is still in the process of adjustment. Before the CPI data is released, the overall market will be in the range of 55000-57500 in the short term, ETH will be in the range of 2280-2380, and SOL will be in the range of 128-136.
Emotions are like a big spring. The harder they are squeezed in the early stage, the harder they will rebound later.
After each crash, most people feel that the market is hopeless and sell their stocks at a loss. Few people dare to buy the dips. However, history has proven that those who buy the dips against human nature often reap rich rewards.
In 2017, BTC once fell to $2,900. If you buy the dips at that time, it would have risen to $20,000 in just three months, a nearly 7-fold return. Ethereum soared from $200 to $1,400, also a 7-fold increase. The performance of Altcoin is also extremely exaggerated.
On March 12, 2020, BTC fell to $3,800, and returned to $10,000 in more than a month. It rose to $30,000 at the end of the year, a 7-fold increase. Ethereum rose from $87 to $1,000 at the end of the year, an increase of more than 10 times.
What is the difference between a bull market and a bear market?
The market will not always be bullish or bearish.
The bull and bear markets are both phased and have always been in an alternating state.
Bull Market Characteristics
The market is full of liquidity, funds are overflowing, newcomers are entering the market at an accelerated pace, and off-site funds are constantly flowing in.
Bitcoin led the initial rise, followed by Altcoin, forming a rotation rise situation
The market sentiment is optimistic, and people generally feel that there is unlimited funds, which has a significant wealth-creating effect and attracts more attention.
Bear Market Characteristics
The overall liquidity is lacking, and the market is gradually deteriorating from the edge to the center. Even if the big coins are protected, the overall situation is still weak.
The market makers and institutions did not leave the market in large numbers, but the market trend was downward and lacked upward momentum. The market sentiment was pessimistic and there was a lack of new funds entering the market. The overall performance was that the chain of risky assets was interrupted and prices fell across the board.
Generally speaking, a bull market is characterized by abundant funds, active markets, and rising prices, while a bear market is characterized by tight funds, quiet markets, falling or consolidating prices.
Summarize
We are experiencing an atypical market cycle, and the real bull market has not really started yet. At present, it is only a bull market for Bitcoin, and the bull market for Altcoin. Don't be naive to think that just by holding zombie coins that have no product market fit and no organic driving force, you can miraculously multiply your portfolio by 10 times.
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