Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME 美联储观察数据显示，当前市场预计美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 71%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 29%。

当前市场预计9月降息25个基点的概率为71%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME Federal Reserve observation data, the current market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to be 71%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points to be 29%.

The market currently expects a 71% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research, recently wrote that investors need to prepare for a potential recession in the US economy, as the Federal Reserve may not be able to save the economy, and investors' strategies need to change accordingly. Peter Berezin pointed out that the Federal Reserve may not be able to save the economy. Previously, the economy fell into recession within a few months after the central bank began cutting interest rates in January 2001 and September 2007. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by more than two percentage points in the next 12 months. Unless the Federal Reserve becomes more accommodative than the market has already expected, or an economic recession occurs, long-term US Treasury yields will not decline significantly from current levels. (Business Insider)

Analyst: History shows that a recession will follow a Fed rate cut, so investors should be prepared

According to Odaily, as traders focus on Wednesday's inflation data and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut next week, US stocks are expected to end their four-day losing streak on Monday, driven by growing concerns about economic slowdown. The three major indices all rose more than 1%, with 10 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index advancing. Ivan Feinseth, Chief Investment Officer of Tigress Financial Partners, stated that "while a weak labor market and a potentially weakening US economy continue to exert pressure, the market's oversold buy-the-dip reaction continues to provide support for the stock market." After last Friday's data showed US August hiring numbers were lower than expected, Wednesday's CPI report may provide assurance to Fed officials that inflationary pressures are stabilizing. The presidential debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump on Tuesday evening may inject some uncertainty into the market this week.

Traders turn their focus to the Fed's rate cut, and U.S. stocks rebounded with three major indexes rising by more than 1%

The closer it gets to the interest rate cut, the more capital in the risk market tends to be drained away.

Written by: 0xTodd, Ebunker Co-founder
Editor's note: On September 18, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting. The long-awaited interest rate cut is finally about to begin. A Federal Reserve rate cut is usually a major positive for risky assets, which will bring huge liquidity to the market. However, Ebunker co-founder 0xTodd has a different view. He believes that the temporary effect of the rate cut may not be beneficial for short-term investment in crypto assets. BlockBeats republishes the full text as follows:

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