Overview of important overnight developments on September 12
1. BlackRock ETF now holds about 2% of the total supply of Bitcoin (good for the market)
2. Swift launches global infrastructure to simplify tokenized asset transfers (good for RWA)
3. Grayscale: Sui Trust is now open to qualified investors seeking to invest in SUI (good news for SUI)
4. Ford and Toyota double down on blockchain, with a surge in patent submissions (positive)
5. After the release of the US CPI: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 85% (positive)
6. Kyle Hauptman, Vice Chairman of the US NCUA, supports the development of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins (positive)
VX:TTZS6308
Market Analysis
CPI is indeed a positive, but the market did not rise as expected. It is estimated that Kuang Gong sold 30,000 coins yesterday. In addition to the selling of Grayscale and the decline of the US dollar before the market, the US stock market did fall at the opening, causing the market to fall below 5.6 at one point, but it was later recovered and is currently stabilizing at 5.8. Yesterday's decline is suspected to be a wash of long orders. The target remains unchanged. After stabilizing at 5.8, the next step is 60,000.
As for Ethereum, I don’t want to mention it anymore. It’s a bit weak. Vitalik sells coins every day to pick up girls, but he is unwilling to admit it. Currently, most of the market has lost confidence in Ethereum. It is difficult for Ethereum to break out of its independent market in the near future. It still has to follow the market.
All the important economic data before the Fed's first rate cut have been released. The conclusion is that inflation continues to cool down, the economy may be in recession, and interest rates must be cut.
Next Thursday, September 19 at 2:00 am, the Federal Reserve will hold a rate decision to decide whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. However, the current data has basically already cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Hold on to the high-quality assets in your hands and keep the current position at 60%. If it is lower than this, you can consider adding some positions.
At present, I still maintain yesterday's view. If the price of BTC reaches 60,000, short-term profitable positions can be sold first, and then bought back when it goes down. As for long-term positions, don't fall before dawn. The risk signal confirms the lower low. BTC is not in a bear market, but is waiting in a re-accumulation mode.
Ethereum's current funding rate performance may indicate an upcoming sharp rise. Analyzing Ethereum's funding rate data over the past year, in September 2023, the funding rate hovered between 0.002 and 0.005, and then broke through 0.015, and the price of Ethereum soared from the $1,500 range to over $4,000.
In September 2024, Ethereum funding rates have remained at similar levels for nearly a month. While it is impossible to be sure that history will repeat itself, there are indeed certain patterns in the market. The crypto market usually becomes active in the fourth quarter after the holiday-intensive summer. You can pay close attention to whether the funding rate breaks through the key threshold of 0.015, which is expected to be a core indicator for tracking healthy growth in the bull market cycle.
The volatility in September is still the main theme. Hold on to the spot and keep the principal.
