Yesterday's CPI data was lower than market expectations, and it is basically certain that a 25 basis point interest rate cut has become a high probability event. The top crypto assets have stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The main traders in the market are waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision meeting next week. The first interest rate cut after the Fed has maintained high interest rates will have a greater impact on the market. It is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly next week.
In terms of ETFs, Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 43 million US dollars yesterday, and Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 5 million US dollars yesterday, reflecting that the overall market participants are still cautious about the market, and the market cannot form a continuous net inflow or net outflow. In terms of the crypto ecology, Bitcoin's ecological classification Bitcoin's computing power has soared after it went online. This ecology has attracted widespread discussion and attention in the industry. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the subsequent trend of the project.
CZ is out of prison and about to make a big splash?
Although CZ cannot directly manage Binance after being released from prison, he is still its largest shareholder, holds real power, still controls key decisions and is basically the spiritual benchmark of BNB. It is worth noting that CZ attached great importance to education before being imprisoned, and is expected to further promote the development of this field after being released from prison. BNB has been very strong recently. The market speculates that it should be related to CZ's upcoming return and the new IEO project. In addition, Binance added cat's API last night. It seems that the listing rumors should be true. Cat has taken off. Aave has also been very strong recently. Recently, it said that it would cooperate with cb to launch cbbtc. Aave also cooperated with Trump's new project before, and entered the rwa track. From the current trend, aave has entered the next stage of the market. I remember that aave also entered the bull market earlier than the main force in the last round. Is this round going to repeat history again? All important economic data before the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have been released. The conclusion is that inflation continues to cool down, the economy may decline, and interest rates must be cut. Next Thursday, September 19 at 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting and decide whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. In addition, there may be two more interest rate cuts this year.
The recent ups and downs are normal.
Looking back at yesterday's market, we can find that it is still dominated by shocks. After the release of CPI data yesterday, it fell all the way to $55,545 and then quickly reversed to cover the loss. Today, the highest point during the day has reached around $58,500. It is considered a rebound before it breaks through 62,000. The short-term pressure level is around 59,200, the extreme pressure can be seen around 60,500, and the bottom support is around 54,800. CPI is indeed good, but the market did not rise as expected. It is estimated that Kuang Gong sold 30,000 coins yesterday, plus the impact of Grayscale's selling and the pre-market decline of the US dollar index. The US stock market did fall at the opening, causing the market to fall below 5.6 at one point, but it was subsequently retracted and is currently stabilizing at 5.8. Yesterday's decline is suspected to be a wash of long orders. The target remains unchanged. If it stabilizes at 5.8, the next step is 60,000.
All important economic data before the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve have been released. The conclusion is that inflation continues to cool down, the economy may be in recession, and interest rates must be cut. Next Thursday, September 19th at 2:00 am, the Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. However, the data now basically shows a 25-point rate cut. If the BTC rises to 60,000 in the near future, short-term profitable positions can be sold first, and then bought back when it goes down. As for long-term ones, don't fall before dawn. The risk signal confirms the lower low. BTC is not in a bear market, but is waiting in a re-accumulation mode.
How to grasp the trend based on the cycle at present?
Cycles are divided into large cycles and small cycles. The large cycle is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, such as interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts, which represents whether the currency is loose or tight. The small cycle is to judge whether it is in the early, middle, or end of the interest rate hike? Is it entering a pause in interest rate hikes, or entering the end of the pause in interest rate hikes? Looking back at historical data, we can find that: 1. The early stage of interest rate hikes is a destructive blow to the entire risk market. Whether it is cryptocurrencies or US stocks, they are basically falling. At the end of the interest rate hike, the entire risk market has risen. 2. Entering the period of suspending interest rate hikes is generally beneficial to the risk market. So from an operational point of view, sell when the interest rate hike begins, and start buying when the interest rate hike reaches the bottom and everyone has begun to predict that it will enter a pause in interest rate hikes. In the interest rate cut cycle, if there is no economic recession in the early stage of the interest rate cut, you can still hold your position. If there is an economic recession, then selling is a better choice. In such a cycle, you may not be able to escape the top accurately, but you can definitely eat 70% of the proportion of the entire rising cycle, and the risk is very low. There is another cycle, that is, the more it falls before the mid-term election, the more you should buy, because it is likely to rise more after the mid-term election. According to historical data, this has happened 14 times out of the past 15 times, and there is at least a 40%-50% profit margin.
At present, I personally think that the target is relatively worth investing in
FTM, back to $0.5, the project is strong, the target is $0.9. CHR, long-term target is $1, various ecosystems are developing, the main game public chain, benchmark IMX. Matic exchanged currency to POL, following BTC rebound. STX, upgrade completed at the end of the month, big ones are not coming yet, continue to hold. Poeple, US election concept, there may be another wave. Klay and Astr, South Korea and Japan national chains.
