1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
Morgan Stanley short Wilson: Unless the Fed cuts interest rates "beyond expectations", the US stock market will be very disappointed
Mike Wilson, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, a well-known short seller on Wall Street, warned that unless the Fed cuts interest rates beyond market expectations, stock market investors will be disappointed. Wilson accurately predicted on July 9 that the S&P was "very likely" to face a 10% correction. From late July to early August, the U.S. stock market fell overall, and even experienced a "Black Monday" on August 5. In Wilson's view, concerns about a "hard landing" of the U.S. economy are the key reason for this round of decline. As U.S. economic data are released one after another, the market has gradually begun to price in a "soft landing" of the economy, and many stock indexes have rebounded to historical highs. However, Wilson pointed out that the trends in the bond market, the yen and the commodity market continue to show concerns about the U.S. economy, and the stock market, such as cyclical stocks and defensive stocks, has hardly rebounded. Wilson warned that unless the Fed cuts interest rates by more than expected, the economy strengthens, or introduces additional policy stimulus, the returns of stock indexes in the next 6-12 months will be extremely limited, and investors should continue to choose high-quality stocks.
The U.S. stock market was closed for Labor Day, the three major index futures fell slightly, and European stocks fell collectively
On Monday, the U.S. stock market was closed for one day due to Labor Day. The three major index futures fell slightly, and European stocks fell slightly. Nasdaq futures fell 0.2%, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.3%, and the German, French, British and Italian stock markets fell collectively.
The U.S. manufacturing data released on Tuesday may continue to show a contraction trend, which will indicate a weakening of the U.S. dollar index.
Economic data will be released on Tuesday, starting with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August. The index is widely expected to rise to 47.5 from 46.8 in July, indicating the largest contraction in manufacturing activity since November 2023, ForexLive reported. Weak data would strengthen the Federal Reserve's case for rate cuts, leading to a depreciation of the dollar and boosting demand for riskier assets. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, interest rate markets are already pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
(2) Web3 field:
A critical week for Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, fell more than 10% in the seven days to September 1, reversing the previous week’s price rebound as the dollar index stalled. A slew of U.S. economic data due this week will likely determine whether the dollar resumes a two-month weakening trend, providing a boon for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. “Rate cuts are good for BTC as it is particularly sensitive to monetary liquidity conditions (considered a risky asset, with no cash flows or profit margins, that would not be hit by an economic slowdown),” said Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, in last week’s edition.
2. Hot events
(1) Macro field:
Polymarket election bettors are once again favoring Republican candidate Donald Trump, with Democrat Kamala Harris' odds slipping to 47% over the weekend from previous even odds. Trump's odds of winning the November election surged to 71% in July, but fell to a low of 44% in August as incumbent JOE said he would not run until Harris was announced as a candidate. Her odds of being the favorite rose to over 55% in early to mid-August. Harris's appeal among Polymarket traders has declined over the past few weeks, while Trump's has gradually risen back above 50%. After nearly two weeks of a tie, he is once again in the lead.
(2) Web3 field:
OKX announced that its Singapore entity, OKX SG, has been granted a major payment institution license by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The company also appointed former Monetary Authority of Singapore official Gracie Lin as CEO of the regional branch. The company said the license grants OKX SG the right to provide digital payment tokens and cross-border remittance services, including spot cryptocurrency trading for Singaporean investors.
According to CoinShares’ latest weekly report, total outflows from digital asset investment products reached $305 million last week. Negative sentiment was mainly focused on Bitcoin, with outflows of $319 million. Bitcoin short investment products saw inflows for the second consecutive week, totaling $4.4 million. Ethereum saw outflows of $5.7 million, while trading volumes stagnated, reaching only 15% of the U.S. ETF launch week levels.
On September 2, according to theblock data, Bitcoin miners' revenue in August hit a new low for the year, with subsidies and fees totaling $851.36 million, of which $20.76 million came from on-chain fees. Mining revenue in August was $99.75 million less than in July, and on-chain fees contributed by users were $4.14 million less than the previous month. Between block heights 855,014 and 859,303, Bitcoin miners mined a total of 4,289 blocks, Foundry USA mined 1,248 blocks, accounting for 29.10%, and Antpool mined 1,074 blocks, accounting for 25.04%.
3. Hot topic narrative
Since EigenLayer started the trend of Ethereum re-staking, "re-staking" has gradually blossomed on Solana and even Bitcoin. The business of staking to earn interest is already mediocre, and it is more meaningful to activate more possibilities and protect its ecological security through re-staking. As the largest economy in the blockchain ecosystem, Bitcoin's current market value has exceeded one trillion US dollars, and the ecosystem surrounding its staking and re-staking is also accelerating.
Unlike the core architecture of Symbiotic, the re-pledge protocol supported by Paradigm, which is based on Ethereum, SatLayer is a Bitcoin re-pledge platform based on Babylon. SatLayer is a universal security layer that leverages the power of Bitcoin. By deploying it as a smart contract on Babylon, SatLayer enables Bitcoin pledgers to use their BTC as a verification service to protect various types of decentralized applications or protocols. So which platforms or protocols will benefit from SatLayer?
The first is the various Liquidity Restaking Tokens (LST), which provide additional income opportunities for their staked BTC deposits. The second is the Bitcoin Verification Service (BSV) platform, which enhances BSV security and access to new features by restaking BTC into SatLayer. Finally, if SatLayer develops well, its infrastructure will also benefit and expand its functionality.
4. Potential Catalyst
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee plans to hold a series of cryptocurrency hearings in September to delve into several aspects of the industry, including decentralized finance (DeFi), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) regulation of digital asset businesses, and the impact of the "pig killing" scam, according to a person familiar with the matter. The chairman of the committee, Republican Congressman Patrick McHenry, will retire at the end of this year. He said one of the top priorities for the remaining term is to pass a cryptocurrency regulatory bill. The first hearing on September 10 will be a subcommittee review of DeFi. Some proposed rules proposed by multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS), may have a life-or-death impact on DeFi projects. Two hearings will be held on September 18, one on the SEC's enforcement practices and the impact of the "pig killing" scam. The full committee hearing on September 23 may have the greatest impact on cryptocurrencies, when the SEC will testify. It is said that the House Committee will seek testimony from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and other members at the same hearing, which is an extremely unusual practice. Meanwhile, lawmakers are negotiating legislation that would limit the agency’s digital asset jurisdiction in order to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) a more prominent role.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Arbitrum is an important Layer 2 expansion solution for Ethereum, which uses Optimistic Rollup technology to solve the congestion and high transaction fees of the Ethereum network. Arbitrum's application ecosystem is mainly divided into two categories: decentralized finance (DeFi), including multiple decentralized exchanges (DEX) such as Uniswap, SushiSwap, etc. The DEX activity on Arbitrum exceeded Polygon in early 2023, becoming the DEX field with the largest transaction volume outside of Ethereum; consumer applications, including games and social applications, use Arbitrum's low transaction fees and high throughput to attract users.
Key projects:
· ARB
Recently, Arbitrum launched the Stylus contract, which may have a positive impact on the developer base of the Arbitrum ecosystem. The view of Arbitrum is that its technical strength is strong and the market sentiment is positive. In addition, Arbitrum will launch a $2.5 million subsidy fund to support the security service costs of projects within the ecosystem.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. HQ (@HyperQuant0 /X)
HyperQuant is a trading robot designed to support the creation of an ecosystem for a fully on-chain open financial system. Its Telegram trading robot provides users with real-time market data and seamless trading capabilities, giving them an advantage in the market, whether on a computer or mobile device. The user-friendly portfolio assistant simplifies the trading process, making it easy for both novice and experienced traders to take advantage of HyperLiquid's advanced protocols. Recently, HyperQuant Bot has been updated with some new features, such as mirroring the strategies of top traders and getting real-time order updates; analyzing rankings and wallets to make informed decisions, bridging assets between Arbitrum and HyperLiquid L1, etc.
2. BERRY (@StrawberryAI_5 /X)
Strawberry is an advanced AI designed for blockchain users. Using cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology and powered by the best-in-class Agentic framework, Strawberry provides powerful solutions tailored for crypto investors. It features an advanced search engine that can be accessed via the web to directly retrieve information, as well as voice and image interaction capabilities for a more dynamic user experience. In addition, it also provides analytical partners that can provide insights into charts and technical data sets.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. APU (@ApusCoin /X)
APU is also known as Helper, an anthropomorphic frog that represents youth, kindness and innocence. Originally from Finland, Apu Apustaja quickly won over the internet with her charm, earning her widespread international fame. Now, it’s hard not to see his face when browsing sites like Twitter, Reddit or Forums. The narrative of the APU token is a remarkable journey of resilience, solidarity and rebirth. Born out of the passion of the cryptocurrency community, the trajectory of $Apu took an unexpected turn when the original developers executed an action that threatened the token’s existence and shook the community to its core.
2. GNUS (@GnusAi /X)
Genius Venture's invention is a system and method for distributed general purpose computing with a cryptographic token payment system that integrates slow blockchain cryptographic tokens with fast directed acyclic graph blockchain cryptographic tokens, providing a hybrid cryptocurrency system that allows high-speed transactions to be separated from the slow operation of normal cryptocurrencies. It also provides mechanisms for verifying data processing and end-user wallet payments for processing data for in-app purchases or in-game purchases of items. The software is unique in that it incorporates an interface that allows applications and games to utilize unused cycles of one or more devices to process real data and receive payment for processing the data.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
