The latest CPI data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last night showed that the consumer index growth rate fell to 2.5% in August, lower than the expected 2.6% and lower than 2.9% in July. While in line with expectations, it was also the fifth consecutive month of slowdown, the lowest level since March 2021.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 3.2% year-on-year in August, which was the same as expected and the previous value, but the core CPI month-on-month comparison was slightly higher than expected, at 0.3%, pushing the core CPI month-on-month data slightly beyond expectations, reducing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by two basis points this year. After the CPI data was released, the market believed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by one basis point this month had risen from 66% yesterday to 85%, and the probability of a two basis point cut was reduced to 15%.
Looking back at the crypto market, Bitcoin fell after the opening of the U.S. stock market, and reached a low of $55,555 at around 22:45. However, it then began a V-shaped rebound, reaching a high of $58,470 around 10 o'clock this morning, and then began a volatile decline in the Asian session. As of the time of writing, the price was $58,077, up about 0.8% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
Judging from the MACD indicator in the 4H level chart, although the short-selling force has weakened, it still exists and may continue to adjust or fluctuate in the short term. The KDJ line values are all at high levels, indicating that the market is in an overbought state and there may be a risk of a correction in the short term. RSI is in the neutral to strong area, and the bullish force is slightly dominant in the short term, but the market momentum is not strong. The upper and lower rails of the Bollinger Bands have a slight opening trend, indicating that market volatility will increase and the price is close to the upper rail. If it cannot effectively break through and stabilize, it may fall back to the middle or lower rail.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
From the MACD indicator in the 1H level chart, the DIF line slightly crosses the DEA line near the 0 axis, showing signs of forming a death cross. The MACD green bar chart shows that the market short-term strength has increased slightly, and there is a risk of a callback. The KDJ three-line values are all hovering around 50, indicating that the market is currently in a volatile stage, and the market direction is unclear in the short term. The upper and lower rails of the Bollinger Bands are slightly closed, indicating that volatility has weakened, and the market is about to enter a consolidation range, and further breakthrough directions need to be waited for. RSI is in the neutral and bullish area. Although the market is slightly bullish in the short term, the momentum is not very strong.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference
Bitcoin rebounds to around 58650 and is shorted, with a target of 57300-57000 and a defense of 59100.
Writing time: (2024-09-12, 18:30)
(Text-Daxian Talks about Coins)
