Odaily星球日报讯 根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具，下周美联储降息 50 个基点的押注从昨天的 28%上升到 43%，美国国债收益率势将录得周度下跌。本周公布的 CPI 和 PPI 数据，支撑了对本月底 PCE 数据表现温和的预期，导致一些投资者预计美联储将更加担心就业问题。与此同时，《华尔街日报》报道称，由于官员们认为通胀已得到控制，并担心就业问题，他们正在考虑采取更为激进的货币宽松政策。10 年期美国国债交投在 3.657%附近，2 年期美国国债为 3.598%。（金十）

CME美联储观察：下周美联储降息50个基点押注再度抬头升至43%

Odaily Odaily News According to the CME Fed Watch tool, bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week rose to 43% from 28% yesterday, and U.S. Treasury yields are set to record a weekly decline. The CPI and PPI data released this week supported expectations of a modest PCE data at the end of this month, leading some investors to expect the Fed to be more concerned about employment. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that officials are considering more aggressive monetary easing as they believe inflation is under control and are concerned about employment. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond traded around 3.657%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond was 3.598%. (Jinshi)

CME Fed Watch: Bet on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed next week rises again to 43%

Elmar Voelker, a senior fixed income analyst at LBBW (Baden-Württemberg Bank), said in a report that the new interest rate expectations, or dot plot, to be announced by the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week, are unlikely to be in sync with the currently heated rate cut expectations. He stated: "It seems at least doubtful whether the forecast adjustments can keep up with market expectations." This also applies to the 2025 forecast. Voelker said the dot plot could become a "potential stumbling block for rising bond prices." The market is speculating that the Federal Reserve may make a significant 50-basis-point rate cut next week, but the bank's recent forecast only suggests a 25-basis-point rate cut this year. (Jinshi)

Institution: The Fed's dot plot may test the market's optimistic sentiment towards rate cuts

Odaily reports that Citigroup forecasts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and by 50 basis points in November and December respectively. (Gold Ten)

Citigroup: The Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November and December

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