In June this year, when the market was bleak, "VC coins" were pushed to the forefront and were pointed out as the culprit of the market decline. Binance also stopped Launchpool after IO (io.net).
Until August, Binance opened Launchpool again, including TON and DOGS, but the yield was far lower than at the beginning of the year.
Yesterday, Binance launched the HMSTR (Hamster Kombat) Launchpool again. What is the price forecast this time? What are the changes in Launchpool's operation strategy and data characteristics compared to the beginning of the year? Odaily will answer this question by digging deep into the past 18 periods of data in this article.
Sneak peek at the core questions and answers
Since the main text involves a lot of data and charts, this section summarizes the core questions and related conclusions as follows. Readers who are not interested in the specific process can directly view the answers:
HMSTR Price Estimates
While maintaining the average annualized rate of return of 108% over the past 18 periods, the Dream price is 0.0593 USDT, the initial circulating market value is 3.817 billion US dollars, and the FDV is 5.93 billion US dollars;
While maintaining the average annualized rate of return of 46.8% over the past five periods, the ideal price is 0.0256 USDT, the initial circulating market value is 1.648 billion US dollars, and the FDV is 2.56 billion US dollars;
Referring to the initial circulating market value of DOGS, the reasonable price is 0.0104 USDT, the initial circulating market value is 671 million US dollars, and the FDV is 1.04 billion US dollars.
Is the current BNB price reasonable based on the annualized rate of return?
Even if calculated based on the initial market capitalization of US$671 million, HMSTR's absolute return for this period was only 0.36%, corresponding to an annualized return of 19%, far lower than the previous average of 108% .
If the time interval of Launchpool is taken into account, BNB's passive income has dropped to the level of stablecoins such as USDT.
Since the destruction of BNB has nothing to do with Binance's profits, the Launchpool yield is the only objective measurement standard. If similar "low Launchpool, high circulation" low-yield tokens continue to be listed, there is a risk of overvaluation for BNB itself.
Does BNB price still have a Launchpool effect?
The Launchpool effect disappears. After the Launchpool announcement, the price will not be directly pulled up, and in most cases there will even be a slight drop ;
It is more cost-effective to buy one hour after the announcement than to buy immediately after the announcement.
Is the pure mining strategy still effective?
Is the strategy of "buy after the announcement to participate in Launchpool, and sell at the end" during the bull market still effective?
Invalid. Buying after the announcement will only result in losses. It is more suitable for long-term holding, or at least hedging or borrowing for short-term mining .
HMSTR Price Estimates
Absolute rate of return = number of reward tokens × one-hour closing price ÷ (number of staked BNB × BNB price at the start of mining), annualized rate of return = absolute rate of return ÷ mining time × 365 days.
The annualized yields for the past 18 periods are shown in the figure below. It can be clearly seen that the annualized yields for the most recent periods have declined significantly .
Therefore, the average annualized rate of return of the past 18 periods (108%) is taken as the dream value, and the annualized rate of return of the past 5 periods (46.8%) is taken as the ideal value, and the dream price is 0.0593 USDT and the ideal price is 0.0256 USDT.
At the dream price, the initial circulating market value is $3.817 billion and the FDV is $5.93 billion;
At the ideal price, the initial market capitalization is US$1.648 billion and the FDV is US$2.56 billion.
Even at the ideal price, the initial circulating market value will rank 52nd among all tokens, which is very unreasonable. From a rational point of view, the only option is to significantly lower the estimated annualized rate of return.
The reason for this unconventional value is that the initial circulation ratio of HMSTR is 64.38%, but the Launchpool is only 3%. To maintain the rate of return, it can only be achieved by a circulation market value far exceeding the normal. However, there is already a "beautiful example" of DOGS. The initial circulation ratio of DOGS is as high as 93.95%, but only 4% enters the Launchpool. Therefore, the circulation market value of DOGS at the time of listing is as high as 671 million US dollars. HMSTR may have the possibility of "creating miracles".
If calculated based on the initial circulating market value of DOGS, the price should be 0.0104 USDT and the FDV should be 1.04 billion USD.
Does BNB price still have a Launchpool effect?
Previously, every time Binance announced the launch of Launchpool, BNB would pull up the price "in advance" or after the announcement. So does this effect still exist now?
Assuming that the listing announcement is issued at 14:25 (or any time at 14:00), the corresponding calculation time point is defined as:
· The price at 14:00 (BNB closing price one hour before the announcement), the price at 15:00 (BNB closing price at the time of the announcement), the price at 16:00 (BNB closing price one hour after the announcement);
· Direct increase in price after announcement (the period of announcement – one hour before announcement), increase in price after announcement (one hour after announcement – the period of announcement);
The difference in increase (increase after announcement - increase directly after announcement). A negative value may indicate that the market lacks confidence in the new token or “insider” profit-taking, while a positive value indicates that the market is more confident.
The other announcement times are changed in the same way, and the data obtained are as follows:
The figure below is a bar chart of "direct increase after the announcement". From the above table, we can see that BNB no longer has the Launchpool effect. The price will not be directly pulled up after the announcement, and there is even more "insider" profit-taking.
In addition, one hour after the announcement, the price turned from rising at the beginning of the year to falling. If you did not buy it in advance, it would be more cost-effective to wait for a certain period of time after the announcement to buy it.
Is the short-term pure mining strategy still effective?
Is the strategy of "buy after the announcement to participate in Launchpool, and sell at the end" during the bull market still effective?
In most cases (72%), BNB bought and held after the announcement fell. Even with the mining income to make up for it, the overall loss is very significant. Therefore, it is not recommended to buy BNB for mining in the short term. At least choose hedging or borrowing for short-term mining.
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