ARK Invest, an asset management company owned by stock goddess Cathie Wood, recently released a monthly report on Bitcoin. Through technical analysis, ARK Invest said that Bitcoin is still in a long-term bullish trend.
BTC did not break through the 200-day moving average and short-term holder cost in August
ARK Invest first noted in a report that throughout the month of August, Bitcoin’s price fell 8.7% to $58,972, failing to break above BTC’s 200-day moving average and the short-term holder’s cost, which stood at $63,693. and $63,245.
Currently, Bitcoin's most important price support levels are $52,000 and $46,000.
Bitcoin remains in bullish trend
Although Bitcoin has experienced significant ups and downs in the past two months and has been greatly affected by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the US election, ARK Invest pointed out that combined with the previous bull market, Bitcoin has risen from annual highs (the all-time high of 73,000 in March). USD)’s decline indicates that BTC is still in a bullish trend:
Bitcoin's pullback from its highs in 2024 suggests similarities to past bull market experiences.
ETF holders are losing money
The Bitcoin spot ETF was finally approved for listing by the U.S. SEC in early January this year. As one of the ETF issuers, ARK Invest said that data in August showed that the current cost price of Bitcoin spot ETF holders is higher than the Bitcoin market price. , investors may be at a loss.
Bitcoin MVRV Z Score Long Zone
However, it is worth noting that ARK Invest pointed out that the MVRV Z score, a technical indicator that measures the valuation status of Bitcoin, showed that the indicator was 1.6 at the end of August, which was higher than the average of 1.42. Therefore, the market value of Bitcoin may be relatively overvalued. state.
Note: If the MVRV Z score indicator is too high, it means that the market value of Bitcoin is overvalued relative to its actual value, which is detrimental to the price of Bitcoin; otherwise, it is undervalued. According to past historical experience, when this indicator is at a historical high, the probability of a downward trend in Bitcoin prices increases, and attention must be paid to the risks of chasing higher prices.
Short-term liquidation reaches lowest level since Q2 2023
Finally, ARK Invest pointed out that short-term contract liquidation has reached the lowest level since the second quarter of 2023 relative to long-term liquidation, with short liquidation accounting for only 37% in August:
Short liquidations in August accounted for only 37% of total liquidations, which may be related to the bottom in the cryptocurrency market.
