I have been recommending TON chain games in the Chinese community since $NOT in February. Not only was $NOT listed on Binance, but then $DOGS also followed, and then there were the recent hamsters and $CATI . The TON chain game listing craze actually exceeded my expectations when I released the video in February this year. I didn’t expect the progress to be so fast.
Speaking of Catize, from the announcement of Binance listing Hamster, the disappointment of thinking that Cat had no chance to be listed, to the big surprise of Cat being confirmed to be listed on Binance, to the opening of airdrop inquiry, the community's emotions can be said to be like a roller coaster, and the past two days are like a microcosm, with both joy and sorrow. Below I will explain and review this process through several key points, and at the end of the article I will also share my judgment on the future of the TON ecosystem
1. What do you think about the airdrop shares and rules?
I put this question first because it is the most common question. First of all, I am as surprised as everyone else about the change in the initial airdrop share. It can be said that it is a completely unexpected start. From the user's perspective, the batch airdrop may indeed be lower than the psychological expectation. Regarding the rules, I also saw that many players who simply idled for a few months did not actually get much airdrop, while the players who paid for the game had a very high weight and received token airdrops of about 3.4 times the amount of game spending. Although I am also a krypton gold player, and I also understand the relationship between krypton gold and weight. However, I still think that it is indeed a bit unfair for those early idle players who have obtained high ranks. The kings and masters who did not pay for the game have relatively too few shares. After all, Web3 still emphasizes a community OG culture, and early players are equal to early supporters . Therefore, I very much hope that the project party can rethink the initial token distribution and give more incentives to those high-ranking players and early players.
2. Interaction strategy
First, let me briefly talk about my cat-stroking strategy. I have a small master and some diamonds, and a large king and some masters. The cost of a small account is 120u-300u, and the cost of a large account is about 600u for one "rescue cat". The original plan was to control each account to a cap of 200u, and then 70% of the accounts would stop when they reached the master level, and 30% would rush to the king level, with a 7:3 ratio. After the airdrop was extended and Binance announced its investment, I saw more and more addresses, and I found that simply rushing to the level might not be enough. Then, the official launched the stray cat rescue activity. At first, I was still confused when I saw this activity go online. I had a telephone conference with several cat owners who had heavy positions. We talked for three and a half hours that day. In the end, most of them decided to increase their positions and make a batch of high-cost differentiated accounts , that is, rescue stray cats. I especially remember that I was a little excited after the chat, and I directly opened a new level 1 account to rush to the stray cat of 499. Later, I found that I lost a lot (now it seems that there is not much difference).
The cat rescue certificate is as shown below. Once a stray cat is successfully adopted, cat litters will start to drop directly. After thousands of cat litters are dropped, it is found that they have not been upgraded much. Because the initial level is too low, the dropped cat litters are also low-level...
At that time, I started to spend money to rescue cats from level 1... I was so stupid, but now I see that the results are the same. Later I figured out the "correct" way to do it. I first used fish coins to buy cats directly, and then rescued stray cats. With the 1,500 free fishing trips, my level went up quickly. Now it seems that although the level and rank are purely imaginary weights, differentiation has been achieved. If there hadn't been that stray cat event, I might not have increased my position and spent money. I have to thank Brother Cao for his analysis, although he didn't think of it purely based on the amount at the time, so this time I made a profit with more or less luck. In the increasingly saturated airdrop track, perhaps "differentiation" is really the only shortcut, because taking the "main road" is too risky.
3. Current and estimated returns Current returns
As mentioned above, the number of airdropped tokens is approximately equal to 3.4 times the amount of game spending. Take the account below as an example. The cost of rescuing stray cats + fish coins is 540u, and the airdropped tokens are 1904. According to the pre-market price of $CATI of 0.7, it is approximately equal to 1332U, and the pre-market profit is nearly 2.5 times, so it is almost a guaranteed profit for big players who spend a lot of money and spend money on multiple accounts. However, it is really hard to guess such a paranoid "weight".
The average value of a rescue cat number is around 2,000 coins
The median price of a small trumpet is 700 krypton and just over 200u
The average upper limit of the trumpet is around 1000
Estimated revenue
It is known that the total amount of $CATI is 1 billion, but the initial circulation is only 30.5%. According to the pre-market price of 0.7u, the current circulating market value is only over 200 million, which is not even as good as many memes that have not been listed on the big board. Even if $CATI is quickly raised to 3u after Binance is launched, the actual circulating market value is less than 1B. As for why it should be raised? Why will it be raised? Is it a pattern? I don’t want to say too much here, because everyone has their own views and opinions, which are determined by their own cognition. However, you can compare the circulating market value of not dogs as a reference. With the current circulation volume, I estimate that there will be a guaranteed return of about 4 times, and 8 times or 10 times is actually not high.
4. How to focus on the TON ecosystem in the future?
Mini games will still be the main narrative in the short term, because TG's "demographic dividend" is too thick. For conservatives, they can choose to make a judgment based on the performance of the currency price after the listing of cats and hamsters. Actionists who are optimistic about mini games can consider starting to raise accounts at a relatively low cost. In addition, I personally think that TON is actually diverting more traffic to CEX than to the ecosystem. It is obviously unreasonable to give all the cheapness to CEX. So after this wave of mini game craze, I think it is very likely to support some ecological projects or tokens on the chain to divert traffic and users to the on-chain ecology . I will keep an eye on the latest developments in the ecology, and publish good early projects as soon as I find them later.
Finally, I hope the Catizen team can listen to the community’s voice, make some changes, and give the early OG some due incentives!
