Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 48%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 52%。 美联储到 11 月累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 30.2%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 50.5%，累计降息 100 个基点的概率为 19.3%。

Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 48%，降息 50 个基点的概率为 52%。美联储到 11 月累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 30.2%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 50.5%，累计降息 100 个基点的概率为 19.3%。

美联储9月降息25个基点概率为48%

According to the "Federal Reserve Observer" of CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the US retail sales data, known as the "terrible data," will be released. UBS says they are closely monitoring retail sales and industrial production data, and weak data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points. UBS says that US inflation has already slowed to a level that allows for a rate cut. The institution outlined its "base case" that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 100 basis points for the rest of this year and another 100 basis points in 2025. UBS added that as the pace of rate cuts accelerates, the US dollar will further decline, and gold will rise further. (Jinshi)

UBS: US retail sales data may affect the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and it is expected that the interest rate will be cut by 100 basis points this year

According to the report from Gold Ten, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve was facing a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and subsequently the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. Next week there will be many key events:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

Bitcoin briefly dipped after the release of mixed economic data in the US last week, but surged past the $60,000 mark again on Saturday, though it was unable to sustain the high point after the volatility.

It began fluctuating and declining early this (16th) morning, falling below $58,500 at the time of writing, a 3.05% drop in the past 24 hours, with the weekend gains fully retraced.

[BlockTempo - the most influential blockchain news media] BTC trend. Source: OKX

Ethereum's performance has been more bearish compared to Bitcoin, fluctuating narrowly for some time before declining this morning.