Odaily星球日报讯 利率衍生品交易员现在预计，到明年年底，基准利率将降至约 2.75%，目前约为 5.25%。这相当于降息十次，每次降息 25 个基点，而美联储可能只会在经济衰退的情况下才会采取这种措施。尽管华尔街很少有人预测很快会出现经济衰退，但大多数人同意，与几个月前相比，现在出现经济衰退的风险更高。（金十）

利率衍生品交易员预计明年底基准利率拟降至约2.75%，相当于执行十次25基点降息

Odaily Odaily News Interest rate derivatives traders now expect the benchmark rate to fall to about 2.75% by the end of next year, from about 5.25% currently. This is equivalent to 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points each, and the Fed may only take such measures in the event of a recession. Although few people on Wall Street predict a recession soon, most agree that the risk of a recession is higher now than a few months ago. (Jinshi)

Interest rate derivatives traders expect the benchmark rate to fall to about 2.75% by the end of next year, equivalent to ten 25 basis point rate cuts.

The US dollar fell slightly in the Asian trading session, as financial markets expect a higher likelihood of the Federal Open Market Committee cutting rates by 50 basis points this week. However, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) foreign exchange strategist Kristina Clifton said that market liquidity remains very thin due to the Japanese and Chinese markets being closed for public holidays. She said the federal funds futures market indicates a 60% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points, compared to around 50% last Friday. Clifton added that the US dollar may weaken this week as the global easing cycle weighs on safe-haven currencies. However, if the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve are not met in this meeting, the US dollar may rebound later this week.

CBA: Investors bet on a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve

According to the report from Gold Ten, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve was facing a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and subsequently the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. Next week there will be many key events:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

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