According to Mars Finance, on September 16, Bitfinex released a report stating that "Bitcoin has rebounded strongly recently, rising more than 15% from its recent low of $52,756, supported by a significant increase in Bitcoin ETF inflows. In the past week, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $403.9 million, reversing a long-term trend of capital outflows, showing a rebound in investor confidence in the asset. The rebound was mainly due to active buying in the spot market. In contrast, futures and perpetual contract markets have seen less volatility, indicating that the current price increase is mainly based on real capital inflows rather than speculative leverage, providing a more sustainable basis for this rebound.
However, Bitcoin is now facing key resistance levels between $60,500 and $61,000, which have been playing a key role since early March. While ETF inflows remain strong, there are signs that the market may be stagnating as spot CVD (buy-sell order difference) has stabilized over the weekend. Volatility in the market is likely to be high this week, driven mainly by investors' expectations for the Fed's decision. Whether the rate cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points, it may affect market sentiment. At the same time, Bitcoin's correlation with the US stock market is strengthening, indicating that fluctuations in traditional financial markets may increasingly affect Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin has also decoupled from gold, which hit a record high last week, showing a shift in investors' preference for traditional safe-haven assets in a risk-averse environment.
Overall, asset prices continue to be driven by the inflation outlook. A slight strengthening in US core inflation will, in our view, make the Fed more cautious about rate cuts, with us anticipating a smaller 25bp cut rather than a more aggressive 50bp cut.”
