Odaily星球日报讯 澳新银行经济学家 Bansi Madhavani 表示，英国央行将在 9 月政策会议上维持 5.0%的基准利率不变。她认为，鉴于服务业通胀率远未达到与持续 2%的通胀率相一致的水平，央行将在宽松周期的早期采取渐进的方式。英国央行在 8 月先行降息，并可能在 11 月再次降息。 Madhavani 说，经济疲软与降通胀方面的进展将为本轮宽松周期降息 150 个基点铺平道路。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 澳新银行经济学家 Bansi Madhavani 表示，英国央行将在 9 月政策会议上维持 5.0%的基准利率不变。她认为，鉴于服务业通胀率远未达到与持续 2%的通胀率相一致的水平，央行将在宽松周期的早期采取渐进的方式。英国央行在 8 月先行降息，并可能在 11 月再次降息。Madhavani 说，经济疲软与降通胀方面的进展将为本轮宽松周期降息 150 个基点铺平道路。（金十）

经济学家：英国央行将在9月政策会议上维持5.0%的基准利率不变

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bansi Madhavani, an economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, stated that the Bank of England will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.0% at the September policy meeting. She believes that given that the service sector inflation rate is far from consistent with a sustained 2% inflation rate, the central bank will adopt a gradual approach in the early stage of the easing cycle. The Bank of England will cut interest rates first in August and may cut them again in November. Madhavani said that economic weakness and progress in disinflation will pave the way for a 150-basis-point rate cut in this easing cycle.

Odaily Odaily News: Bansi Madhavani, an economist at ANZ Bank, said that the Bank of England will maintain the base rate of 5.0% unchanged at the September policy meeting. She believes that given that the service industry inflation rate is far from reaching a level consistent with a sustained 2% inflation rate, the central bank will take a gradual approach in the early stages of the easing cycle. The Bank of England cut interest rates in August and may cut interest rates again in November. Madhavani said that economic weakness and progress in reducing inflation will pave the way for a 150 basis point interest rate cut in this round of easing cycle. (Jinshi)

Economist: Bank of England will keep base rate unchanged at 5.0% at September policy meeting

According to Odaily, David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week may not be able to solve a core problem facing the market, which is how many rate cuts are expected for the rest of the year. When Federal Reserve officials last released their forecasts, they predicted only a 25-basis-point rate cut by 2024. But even if the Federal Reserve's new forecast is adjusted to two rate cuts this year, it will still be far below traders' expectations. Kelly pointed out that the futures market's pricing essentially reflects that by the end of December, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a full 100 basis points or more. The actual policy path will depend on the employment and inflation data released before the next meetings in November and December.

JPMorgan: Uncertainty about future Fed rate cuts will linger after this week's meeting

Odaily Planet Daily Report: In a report, Moody's Analytics stated that the Bank of Japan is expected to remain unchanged in its monetary policy meeting on September 19 and 20. Although the Bank of Japan is tightening its policy faster than expected and hinting at the possibility of further rate hikes, Moody's expects the next rate hike to be in October.

The report stated that the Japanese economy is struggling to shake off the gloom due to weak consumer spending and exports. "Inflation will rise sharply in the short term as the government reduces its assistance for household energy bills before introducing new support measures," Moody's said, forecasting that the core inflation rate will accelerate from 2.7% in July to 2.9% in August.

Moody's: Bank of Japan expected to remain on hold this week

According to the "Federal Reserve Observer" of CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.