Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”数据，截至发稿，美联储 9 月降息 50 个基点概率进一步升至 67%，而降息 25 个基点概率降至 33%。

美联储9月降息50个基点概率升至67%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot; data, as of press time, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September further increased to 67%, while the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points dropped to 33%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has risen to 67%.

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.

Institutional view: If the Fed cuts interest rates sharply, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be hit hard

The market was relatively stable for most of last week, but by Friday, the market's expectation of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September suddenly surged from around 15% to about 50%, and there was almost no clear news to explain this change. The economic data was largely in line with expectations and was not a factor, and the Federal Reserve was still in a silent period, which led market participants to speculate that this repricing may have been triggered by comments from former Federal Reserve officials and journalists...

SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240916): 50 is the New 25

Original | Liu Jie Chain

Overnight, BTC has been maintained at around $60,000. A unique event has occurred in BTC's history for the first time: the 100-week moving average has crossed above the 200-week moving average, forming a "golden cross".

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After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on monetary policy. This rate cut is almost a done deal. The only point of contention is how much the first rate cut will be. Will it be 25bp or 50bp? It is reported that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is consulting with the various governors, and there are still differences within the Board of Governors.

The good news is that the market has shifted from fearing a recession to welcoming a larger rate cut. The...