Wintermute’s decentralized prediction market will use TRUMP and HARRIS tokens, providing an alternative to Polymarket.
Algorithmic trading firm Wintermute has announced the launch of OutcomeMarket, a decentralized prediction market platform that will initially focus on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with tokens pegged to candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
The platform, which will launch next week, will allow users to participate directly in prediction markets on Ethereum (ETH) and its layer 2 scaling networks Base and Arbitrum, without having to bridge assets between chains.
OutcomeMarket’s platform will be powered by permissionless smart contracts — which contain the code that drives decentralized applications (dapps) — meaning any trading venue can list its tokens without imposing minting or trading fees.
Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy said the platform aims to create a more accessible and efficient market by lowering barriers to entry. The initial coin offering will feature TRUMP and HARRIS, allowing users to vote on candidates’ performance in the election while also being able to use the tokens in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications across multiple exchanges.
Chaos Labs’ oracle is “a unique combination of advanced AI and LLM with risk modeling” that “provides a highly accurate, tamper-proof data feed while embedding real-time risk assessments directly into the protocol,” said Chaos Labs CEO Omer Goldberg. Wintermute is an investor in Chaos Labs.
“Both centralized and decentralized exchanges have shown strong interest in listing such prediction market contracts, but none have developed them in a permissionless manner that does not charge minting or transaction fees,” he wrote.
The platform will utilize Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle to ensure the integrity and reliability of data across the chain. Several trading venues, including Bebop, WOO X, and Backpack, have already committed to listing the OutcomeMarket token.
Political meme coins and prediction markets have received a lot of attention in recent years, fusing cryptocurrency speculation with political predictions. In 2020, the FTX derivatives exchange launched a similar prediction market for the US presidential election, with huge trading volumes. Of course, FTX subsequently collapsed amid allegations of fraud.
Prediction markets such as PredictIt and Polymarket have also faced regulatory scrutiny, with Polymarket paying a $1.4 million civil penalty to settle CFTC charges in 2022. In 2024, Polymarket saw a surge in popularity and volume, largely due to interest in election betting pools.
