The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) held an interest rate decision meeting. The market expected that a rate cut would be a foregone conclusion. As the market prepared for the first rate cut in more than four years, the cryptocurrency market rose in unison. Bitcoin broke through the $61,000 mark last night (17).
Currently, the market implied odds show that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut before the Fed makes a decision is slightly higher than 50%. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen sharply this week, with the 2-year Treasury yield hitting a two-year low of 3.52%.
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As of Wednesday, according to the CME Fed Watch tool, the futures market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut, up from 30% a week ago, and a 37% chance of a "conventional" 25 basis point cut.
Will there be another copycat bull market in this cycle?
I think the key event that brings about the bull market of Altcoin is neither the launch of VC projects with large financing nor the crazy launch of meme projects by Binance, let alone the sudden emergence of so-called mass adoption projects. In fact, the arrival of a bull market is only related to the enthusiasm of the funds entering the market.
If the capital entering the market is greater than the capital leaving the market, the market will rise, otherwise, it will fall. The others are nothing more than finding some reasons for the capital to enter and exit to make the capital appear to be not stupid.
The event that is really worthy of everyone's attention and waiting may be Uniswap, which has been unknown in the corner recently. Whether its governance token Uni dividend will be approved by the SEC will determine whether the copycat bull market will come.
Some people may have noticed recently that some tokens such as BNB, PENDLE, AAVE, etc., which are supported by real project income, have performed very well in the past year. This shows that the market will not miss out on truly high-quality projects, and the commercial essence of traditional business practiced for thousands of years is also correct as truth.
However, it is not easy to change the SEC's policies, at least not before the November election, which means there will be no bull market before November. As for after November, it depends on whether Trump can be elected and whether he can replace the current SEC chairman with someone who likes crypto. Even if Trump is elected, it will take time to pass relevant bills. In other words, in the next three to six months, everyone needs to tighten their belts and hold on. At most, Bitcoin will rise alone to drive up Altcoin.
At 2 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and then hold a press conference with Chairman Powell! The market is concerned about whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points!
In fact, whether it is a 25 basis point or 50 basis point rate cut, the real meaning is that the era of restrictive monetary policy is coming to an end. Risk assets like low interest rates and cheap liquidity. The Federal Reserve has already planned this route. Now is the best time to get out of the risk curve. After the interest rate meeting on the 18th, there will be a good round of market conditions. Even if there is a sharp drop, it is an excellent opportunity to enter the market. I believe that the market in late September and early October will be a surprise!
The two biggest key factors of the bull market:
The first is the influx of a large amount of funds, and the second is a powerful narrative to take over. Both are indispensable!
This round of the market is actually quite awkward. It is not like Defi in 2020 and Gamefi in 2021, which have new narratives to attract external funds. Once there is no narrative relay, then Meme is the best narrative, because the market has no new carriers, and the pure value consensus model of Meme is forced to become a liquidity carrier;
I think it is external funds that have piled these meme coins to a certain height, resulting in a lack of heat and the market has to accept the mainstreaming of MEME in the short term!
The exchange only looks at the popularity and market reaction, so Binance’s move is not surprising. Under such popularity, high-valuation VCs are just trying to make money, so it’s not too much to just find some low-valuation ones to test the waters!
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