Odaily星球日报讯 素有“股坛教父”之称的沃顿商学院教授 Jeremy Siegel 近日撰文表示，美联储应考虑更大幅度的降息，否则将面临经济衰退风险。 Siegel 在文章中认为大多数经济模型表明，鲍威尔应当选择最符合经济状况的联邦基金利率水平，而不是关注从非常限制性的水平降息的速度。（金十）

沃顿商学院经济学家：鲍威尔若不大幅降息，美国经济或“冲向悬崖”

Odaily Odaily News: Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel, known as the &quot;Godfather of the Stock Market&quot;, recently wrote an article saying that the Federal Reserve should consider a larger interest rate cut, otherwise it will face the risk of economic recession. Siegel believes in the article that most economic models show that Powell should choose the federal funds rate level that best suits economic conditions, rather than focusing on the speed of interest rate cuts from a very restrictive level. (Jinshi)

Wharton economist: If Powell does not cut interest rates significantly, the U.S. economy may "rush to the cliff"

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Oksana Aronov, Head of Alternative Fixed Income Market Strategy at an asset management firm, said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that interest rates are not as restrictive as the Federal Reserve expects... The market has become accustomed to a low-interest rate environment, "This (the market's call for rate cuts) is the impact of the extraordinary unconventional monetary policy of the past 15 years on the market." Aronov said the U.S. unemployment rate is at a historic low, and the market is no longer accustomed to a normal interest rate environment. The current 4.3% unemployment rate is "completely within" the Federal Reserve's 5% target, and any recent weakness is just a return to normal after years of a very tight labor market... We have not really seen widespread weakness. Retail sales and earnings of retailers like Walmart (WMT.N) are strong, indicating robust consumer spending. Aronov said the economy is still steadily growing, and there is no need to "sound the alarm."

JPMorgan strategist: U.S. economy is strong, Fed doesn't need to cut rates

The Royal Bank of Canada continues to expect the United States to achieve normalization rather than recession, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The median of the Fed's economic forecast summary (SEP) is expected to show a 75 basis point rate cut this year, higher than the 25 basis point forecast in July, consistent with the bank's forecast. In addition, the bank believes that Fed Chairman Powell's remarks may maintain a cautious attitude - hinting at future rate cuts, without committing to a predetermined path, in order to have greater flexibility in future decision-making. (Gold Ten)

RBC: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, and Powell remains cautious

On September 18, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates for the first time in over four years tonight, but it is still unknown whether policymakers will choose a 50-basis-point cut or a smaller magnitude. The current interest rate futures market reflects a more than 60% probability of a 50-basis-point cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has stated that this is their top priority as inflation is approaching the Fed's 2% target. However, a 25-basis-point cut would be more in line with the Fed's past easing cycles outside of crisis periods. Options pricing on the S&P 500 index suggests the index may see volatility of around 1.1% on Wednesday. Recent gains in US stocks mean that if the Fed's cut is smaller, the market may struggle to cope with the disappointment.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, wrote that while a 50-basis-point cut "will undoubtedly be discussed," Powell "is unlikely to get enough votes." Tara Hariharan, managing director of global macro hedge fund NWI Management, stated: "Given that the US stock market is near historical highs and may already reflect the Fed's deep easing cycle, the risk-reward outlook for further upside appears unfavorable."

Analyst Weller of StoneX said a 25-basis-point cut could lead to a knee-jerk rise in the US dollar, potentially pushing USD/JPY back above the key 142.00 level, while a 50-basis-point cut could drive the pair towards the psychological 140 level. Glen Capelo, managing director of fixed income at Mischler Financial Group, stated that a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed will likely lead to a sell-off in US Treasuries, though this will also largely depend on Powell's press conference.

Michael Rosen, executive partner and chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, believes the bond market has priced in an overly aggressive pace of Fed cuts. The market expects the Fed to cut 250 basis points next year, a magnitude only plausible in an economic recession. As a result, he believes the decline in short-term Treasury yields will be less than market expectations, and long-term yields may even start rising from current levels. Saish Sandeep Sawant Dessai, an analyst at Angel One, stated in a report that "the real risk is that the market is pricing in an excessively dovish scenario, which could lead to a rise in US Treasury yields and the US dollar, further weighing on gold prices."