The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting on the 17th and 18th Eastern Time, and will announce the latest interest rate policy at around 2 a.m. on Thursday (19th) Taiwan time. Market analysts all expect that interest rates will be cut, but there are different opinions on whether to cut interest rates by 1 or 2 points. FedWatch data shows that current market expectations are that the probability of a 1-point interest rate cut is 37%, and the probability of a 2-point interest rate cut is 63%.
Crypto market trends after rate cut
Against this background, industry insiders have predicted the impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 1 or 2 yards on the cryptocurrency market. In this regard, this article will take stock of the bullish and bearish comments made by industry insiders on the crypto market after the interest rate cut:
Franklin Securities: One yard down is the best
Luo Youmei, senior vice president of Franklin Securities Investment Consulting, judged that a one-point cut in interest rates is the best result, but a two-point cut will raise doubts about whether the economy will have a hard landing or face a recession.
As for the speed of interest rate cuts this year, there will be two meetings in November and December after the September meeting. Luo Youmei believes that it can be one rate at a time before the end of the year, and next year as well. A slow rate cut is better than a rapid rate cut of two rates at a time. In the event of rapid interest rate cuts, geopolitics may further trigger inflation and be detrimental to regulation.
Tianqiao Capital founder: Bitcoin may reach $100,000 by the end of the year
According to Bloomberg, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Tianqiao Capital and hedge fund manager, said in an interview today that the Federal Reserve may decide to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this time, which is part of at least 150 basis points of interest rate cuts in the next 18 months. He believes this is a good thing for the U.S. and global asset prices, adding:
By the end of this year, the price of Bitcoin may reach $100,000.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes: Financial markets may see a financial collapse similar to 8/5
In addition, at Token 2049 held in Singapore today, Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX exchange, said at the meeting :
There is a 60% to 70% chance that the Fed will choose to cut interest rates by 50 or 75 basis points.
However, even though Hayes predicted that the rate cut would be higher than market expectations, he was still firmly bearish on the stock market and the encryption market. He said:
I think it is a huge mistake for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a time when the U.S. government is stepping up its intervention.
I think the market will collapse in the days after the Fed cuts interest rates because it will narrow the interest rate differential between the dollar and the yen. We saw a few weeks ago that the yen fell from 162 to 142 in about 14 days of trading, almost triggering a mini-financial collapse.
Now that the Fed and the market are expecting them to continue cutting interest rates very quickly, we're going to see similar financial stress again.
Founder of hedge fund Asymmetric: A 1-digit rate cut will lead to a fall, while a 2-digit rate cut will lead to a rise.
According to Cointelegraph , Joe McCann, CEO of crypto hedge fund Asymmetry, said:
If the Fed only cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, I think the stock market will be hit hard and the cryptocurrency market may follow suit. This is because the stock market is currently at an all-time high and the market generally expects a rate cut of 50 basis points.
McCann also added that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by more than 50 points, it may be beneficial to risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
