1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
l The "September curse" came true! US stocks plummeted
The trigger for the plunge was the two PMI data released overnight in the United States. Among the sub-indices, the decline in orders and the increase in inventory are considered to be one of the most worrying signals since the global financial crisis. At the same time, the price index regained its upward trend, indicating a rebound in CPI, conveying the hidden worries of stagflation. On September 3, the major US stock indexes all recorded the largest single-day decline since August 5, with the S&P 500 falling 2.4% and the Nasdaq falling more than 3%, the third largest single-day decline in the past year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is closely related to the economic cycle, fell back from its highs and fell back below 41,000 points. The leading US stock market Mag7 fell collectively.
Figure 1: Nasdaq
Source: Coinglass, Dot Labs
The culprit of the plunge: PMI data points to recession and stagflation
Two PMI data released overnight triggered market concerns about the US economy. In the ISM manufacturing PMI, the new order index was 44.6, the worst since June 2023, and the previous value in July was 47.4; the inventory index was 50.3, up 5.8 points from the previous month, and the previous value in July was 44.5; the manufacturer's payment price index rose from 52.9 in July to 54. The Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM sub-item data converged and sent three major signals:
First, the employment index has rebounded significantly from July, indicating that this Friday's non-farm payroll report will be stronger than expected;
Second, the manufacturer's payment price index has resumed its upward trend, indicating that the cooling of commodity inflation may have ended, and even the CPI low point of this cycle has been seen;
Third, the new orders/inventory ratio fell to recession levels, indicating serious problems in the manufacturing industry.
Figure 1. CPI data
Source: Coinglass, Dot Labs
(2) Web3 field:
Crypto market falls again
The crypto market is quite dull. BTC fell again today from around $58,000, to a low of $55,606. ETH also fell from around $2,500 to around $2,300. Altcoin and others also saw a general decline due to the performance of the broader market. According to coinglass data, the entire network had a liquidation of $196 million in the past 24 hours, of which long orders had a liquidation of $172 million. The performance of BTC spot ETFs is also not optimistic. Since the data on August 27 changed to a large net outflow of $127 million, it has been in a state of net outflow.
2. Hot events
Nvidia plunged 9.5%, wiping out $278.9 billion in market value
On Tuesday, September 3, the first trading day of September after the long weekend of the U.S. stock market, "tragic" became a very appropriate adjective for it, and "plunge" can be used to refer to Nvidia and a number of chip stocks behind it, which led the decline throughout the day. Nvidia opened 2.8% lower, and then continued to fall, closing down 9.5%. The stock price fell to $108, the lowest in three weeks since August 9, and the market value shrank by $279 billion. The total market value is further away from the 3 trillion mark. Nvidia 'long ETF fell by about 19%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the industry benchmark, fell 7.8%, breaking through the integers of 5,100 to 4,800 points in succession, to a three-week low since August 12. The ETF SMH tracking the benchmark fell 7.5%, the largest single-day drop in more than four years.
Figure 1. NVIDIA
Source: Coinglass, Dot Labs
(2) Web3 field:
On September 4, Web3 cybersecurity company Ancilia said that Penpie suffered an attack on its reward protocol, resulting in a loss of approximately $27 million. The attack caused Penpie's platform currency PNP to plummet by approximately 40%; at the same time, Pendle (PENDLE) also fell by nearly 10% in the past 24 hours, indicating that the incident had an impact on the entire Pendle ecosystem.
3. Hot topic narrative
Recently, there have been more and more topics and controversies surrounding Ethereum. Not only does Vitalik himself need to explain his views, but even the Ethereum Foundation has to issue an announcement to calm the community's doubts. On August 25, KOL @0xstrobe questioned Vitalik and publicly accused him of poor communication on the topic of DeFi. Vitalik responded: The income you mentioned comes from borrowers, transaction fees, etc., which is what I am worried about. The value of crypto tokens is that you can earn income with them, and these incomes are paid by people who trade crypto tokens.
The answer is clear, for example: those who earn 8% annual interest in USD are being paid by those who pay 8% annual interest to long ETH with 2x leverage, but this means that the DeFi market exists downstream of the ETH market. So while DeFi may be great, it is fundamentally limited and cannot be the explosive innovation that drives crypto technology to another 10-100x adoption.
However, Vitalik's reply has attracted more questions and rebuttals. For example, a partner of Electric Capital said that Vitalik's words apply to all finance. KOL @PaperImperium said that Vitalik's remarks are a misunderstanding of human economic history. The CEO of Alphaverse Capital said that Vitalik's view is untenable.
JPMorgan Chase gave the reason for Ethereum's poor performance in a research report: Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds have generally seen net outflows since their launch last month, while the spot Bitcoin ETF launched earlier this year has been more successful. The net outflow of Ethereum funds was about $500 million, while the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $5 billion. The bank also said that the weak data of the Ethereum ETF was somewhat expected, and pointed out that Bitcoin's "first-mover advantage", lack of pledge, and lower liquidity mean that it is less attractive to institutional investors. Zhu Su believes that the problem with the Ethereum Foundation is not the premature sale of valuable tokens, but the failure to provide a coherent roadmap and effective leadership.
4. Potential Catalyst
On September 6, the last non-farm report of the Federal Reserve this month will be released. Against the backdrop of the downward trend of inflation, this employment report will undoubtedly be one of the most important data this week. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States for July, released on August 2, were 114,000, lower than the expected 175,000. After the release of this data, the market was widely concerned, and some even believed that the US economy was at risk of recession, which triggered a week-long plunge in the global market. As a risky asset, cryptocurrencies were the first to be hit and were negatively affected.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
The Ethereum ecosystem is a decentralized platform that supports the development of smart contracts and DApps. There are more than 1,400 projects in the Ethereum ecosystem, which can be mainly divided into DeFi, NFT, GameFi, infrastructure, and development tools. DeFi is the largest project category on Ethereum. According to DeFiLlama data, Ethereum's DeFi project TVL exceeds US$25 billion, with a daily transaction volume of more than US$1 billion and approximately 300,000 active user addresses; As of July 2024, the amount of Ethereum staked has increased from 25 million ETH in 2023 to 33.7 million ETH, which shows that the community has increased confidence in the Ethereum network, especially after the transition to the Proof of Stake mechanism, with staked ETH accounting for 28.28% of the total supply. Overall, the Ethereum ecosystem will continue to attract the attention of investors and developers in 2024.
Key projects:
$WELL
WELL3 is a Web3 health platform that revolutionizes health data management by leveraging the Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) and Decentralized Identity (DID), along with sophisticated AI analytics, to transform health data into valuable rewards.
The recent things worth noting about WELL3 are the resubmission and approval of the MIP-B23 and MIP-O02 proposals, which may have a positive impact on prices. Recently, people are optimistic about WELL3, believing that its airdrop plan for community incentives, reducing selling pressure and increasing stickiness is excellent, and market sentiment is relatively optimistic. WELL3 is building a dynamic ecosystem that provides real value to users, which will be the key to its long-term development.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. F16 (@CoinF16 /X)
F16 is a meme coin that symbolizes freedom and resilience. Each token represents the fight for liberation, justice and solidarity, empowering holders to defend their beliefs. F16 is more than just a coin, it is a lifestyle, a statement, and a great journey to crypto.
2. r/snoofi (CA: 7M9KJcPNC65ShLDmJmTNhVFcuY95Y1VMeYngKgt67D1t)
Snoofi is a meme coin with no intrinsic value, no expected financial return, no profit plan, and no central issuer. Snoofi is intended for entertainment purposes only. Although the r/snoofi subreddit is on reddit.com, neither this subreddit nor the snoofi meme coin is affiliated with Reddit Inc. or its mascot Snoo or any of Snoo's authorized partners.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. UNREAL (@TheUnrealAI /X)
UNREAL AI is a decentralized GPU computing network that aims to create a global network of advanced GPU computing. UNREAL AI optimizes AI training, mining, and rendering through a centralized GPU network: Providing scalable and powerful GPU resources, researchers and developers can use top GPUs to efficiently train complex AI models without expensive infrastructure; Providing access to a global network of high-performance GPUs to enhance cryptocurrency mining, this decentralized approach reduces the cost and complexity associated with traditional mining setups; Leveraging decentralized GPU power to deliver high-quality visual effects and animations faster, which can significantly reduce rendering time, and users can efficiently and economically render high-quality movies and visual effects.
2. COLON (@colon_ethereum /X)
COLON is the father of Doge. Because Doge first appeared on the blockchain and inspired other dog-themed meme coins, Colon is the first precedent of all dog meme coins. According to the official X platform, this dates back to 2009. Without Colon, Doge would hardly have become a well-loved and lovable meme in this space.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
