Odaily星球日报讯 美联储降息 50 个基点的决定得到了官员们对经济前景看法转变的支持。美联储官员目前预计，到 2024 年底，失业率将保持在 4.4%，而此前他们在 6 月份的预测是 4%。在美联储官员看来，通胀也比 6 月份有所放缓。他们预计 12 个月 PCE 通胀率为 2.3%，而上次点阵图显示为 2.6%。这种观点的转变表明，美联储正越来越关注其双重使命中的就业方面。（金十）

美联储愈加关注双重使命中的就业方面

Odaily Odaily: The Fed&#39;s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points was supported by officials&#39; shifting views on the economic outlook. Fed officials now expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% by the end of 2024, compared with their previous forecast of 4% in June. Inflation has also slowed from June in the view of Fed officials. They expect 12-month PCE inflation to be 2.3%, compared with 2.6% in the last dot plot. This shift in view suggests that the Fed is paying more and more attention to the employment aspect of its dual mission. (Jinshi)

Fed's dual mandate focuses more on employment

The Federal Reserve FOMC statement: the members voted 11-1 to pass this rate decision, with the previous meeting being unanimous. The Federal Reserve made its first 50BP rate cut, and the three major US stock indexes rose in the short term, with the Dow Jones up 0.79%, the S&P 500 up 0.86%, and the Nasdaq up 0.98%. The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that among the 19 officials, 2 officials believe there should be no further rate cuts by 2024 after this meeting, 7 officials believe there should be a 25 basis point rate cut in 2024, 9 officials believe there should be a 50 basis point rate cut in 2024, and 7 officials believe there should be a 75 basis point rate cut in 2024. (Gold Ten)

The median of the Fed's dot plot: the cumulative interest rate cut will be 100 basis points in 2024

The Odaily Planet Daily Report states that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision later today. An analyst at Maybank in a foreign exchange research and strategy report said that the market's expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has stabilized in the 60%-70% range. However, analysts said that the FOMC may wish to avoid sending the wrong signal to the market through a large rate cut, partly because this could cause panic. The analyst added that market participants are expected to focus on the press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to understand the subtle differences in the forward guidance for future rate cuts.

Institution: The Fed may want to avoid sending the wrong signal by cutting interest rates sharply

According to Odaily, David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week may not be able to solve a core problem facing the market, which is how many rate cuts are expected for the rest of the year. When Federal Reserve officials last released their forecasts, they predicted only a 25-basis-point rate cut by 2024. But even if the Federal Reserve's new forecast is adjusted to two rate cuts this year, it will still be far below traders' expectations. Kelly pointed out that the futures market's pricing essentially reflects that by the end of December, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a full 100 basis points or more. The actual policy path will depend on the employment and inflation data released before the next meetings in November and December.