The Fed unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The stock market surged to 62,000 after the U.S. stock market closed.
The United States finally couldn't hold on any longer and started to cut interest rates. At 2 a.m., Powell announced that the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points , not the expected 25 basis points. The first rate cut was so big, which was really unexpected. Gold, BTC, and the U.S. stock index all rose after the announcement, and then fell. However, BTC soared to over 62,000 after the U.S. stock market closed.
The US economy is indeed in recession, otherwise the first rate cut would not have been so big. The old abalone is still insisting that the economy has a soft landing, but his actual actions have betrayed him. From the dot plot, the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the next two months, which means that it will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in one month of November and December, and keep the rate unchanged in the other month, or cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both months.
The Fed chose a combination of "dovish rate cuts + dovish dot plots + hawkish speeches"
The whole meeting was full of surprises:
Adjustment of the wording of the policy statement
New commitments: In addition to the commitment to return inflation to 2%, the statement added that the committee will be "deeply committed to supporting maximum employment."
On inflation and employment: Job gains have slowed and inflation has “made further progress” but remains somewhat elevated
"Dot Matrix" accident
The median of the "dot plot" shows that a total rate cut of 100 basis points will be made before the end of this year, which means there will be two 25 basis point rate cuts left. It is expected that a total rate cut of 200 basis points will be made by the end of 2025.
Unexpected after Powell news
The first major interest rate cut of 50 basis points did not send a clear signal to the market
Speech points: · The Fed does not have any preset path, and the Fed will continue to make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with no clear rules for determining the extent of rate cuts (implication: although it starts with a large rate cut, 50 basis points should not be seen as a new pace)
There is nothing in the forecast to suggest the Fed is rushing, and the Fed does not believe it is behind the curve (the implication: this is an “insurance” rate cut).
The Fed will have two more jobs reports before its next meeting (read: two more jobs reports to base its decisions on).
We are not declaring victory against inflation, as housing inflation is slowing more slowly than we expected (subjective: don’t expect big rate cuts to come)
Since Wall Street entered the market, the difficulty of trading in the entire market has risen rapidly, and the money-making effect has become extremely poor. It can even be said that it is only a bull market for Bitcoin and has nothing to do with other currencies.
For the current market, under such a macro environment, the probability of another break is very low. If the high point breaks through 70,000 again, it is very likely that the real main uptrend will start at any time . It has been fluctuating for more than half a year, and everything is possible.
The engine of the bull market cannot be seen only in Bitcoin. Only when Ethereum leads a group of small coins to make money can a spark start a prairie fire . Otherwise, it is just a Bitcoin bull market, and this bullish taste is accompanied by a hint of sadness. What is certain is that Bitcoin will definitely be bullish, while small coins need to wait for real liquidity to spill over.
Judging from the recent trend of small coins, in fact, many coins have come out of the bottom, and it can be basically confirmed that the big bottom has been reached. After the first wave of this bottom is pulled up, there will often be a retracement confirmation. The depth of the retracement should be calculated according to different tokens. At that time, whether you dare to buy will greatly affect the yield in the next six months to one year. It took so long!
I hope that everyone has not fallen before dawn. Let’s reach out and grab the light that is right before our eyes. Without despair, how can there be hope?
(The market is getting better! Hurry up and make arrangements to buy the dips and pick up chips. Prepare to ambush a potential currency with an expected increase of 30%-50% to bring everyone back. The next password will be announced soon!!)
Number of people: Temporarily limited to 50 people, mainly spot goods
This is the end of the article. I will do a more detailed analysis in the communication group. If you want to join my circle, please contact me directly through the WeChat below!
Want to join the VIP spot group! Welcome to chat with me! Welcome to join us to grasp the next hot spot and maximize the return on investment!
