According to ChainCatcher, Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of England to vote 7 to 2 to keep interest rates unchanged, with no clear guidance on the road ahead. The APF reduction is expected to be 100 billion pounds. It is expected that the continuous rate cuts from November 2024 to August 2025 will bring the interest rate to 3.00%, with a probability of 40% for this base case. The previous forecast was that the interest rate would reach 3.00% by August 2026.
Goldman Sachs pointed out three reasons for adjusting its expectations, including increased confidence that wage growth will cool significantly in the coming months, inflation progress may accelerate significantly in 2025, the simple Taylor rule points to faster normalization, and most developed country central banks will cut interest rates continuously.
