ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi, UBS strategists believe that there is a clear risk that US interest rates will eventually fall more than the market currently prices, which may inflate the stock market bubble. The UBS team led by Andrew Garthwaite said that since 1981, the Fed's 50 basis point policy easing cycle has been accompanied by a recession, but this time they believe this is a sign of the Fed's aggressiveness rather than a recession.
Garthwaite noted that market pricing suggests that interest rates will bottom out around 2.8%, which is the level the Federal Reserve has hinted is neutral, "so there is a clear risk that rates end up falling more than expected."
The UBS team believes that the steepening of the yield curve dominated by short-term bonds is beneficial to defensive stocks and consumer goods sectors, but excludes luxury goods, and expects small-cap stocks to outperform as they have three times more floating-rate debt than large-cap stocks.
