Dear new and old fans, it's been a long time since I last saw you. I'm back after a while. Yes, it's because of the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 4 years. It's also because of the upcoming good market. I believe that many friends will look forward to the golden September and silver October in 2024 and the expectations for the crypto next year, just like me. This time, I have accumulated a lot of new trading methods and new ideas for the short and medium term. I will continue to reply to your messages.
Hot topics of Master Chat:
This rate cut is actually a supplement to the lack of a rate cut in July. It does not mean that there are major problems with the US economy, but rather shows the Fed's confidence in controlling inflation and supporting the economy. They believe that the economy can achieve a "soft landing."
This guidance makes market sentiment more stable, just like the market expectation management in June 2022.
By "leaking information" in advance, the Federal Reserve allows the market to fully discuss and digest various negative news, ensuring a smooth transition in the market when the actual decision is announced.
In his subsequent speech, Powell did not explicitly say that the 50 basis point rate cut was due to economic problems, but instead emphasized the balance between inflation and unemployment.
He believes that the faster-than-expected decline in inflation is the main reason for further interest rate cuts.
Although Powell did not clearly state the pace of future interest rate cuts, judging from the dot plot, there is a high possibility that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points each in November and December.
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November is 62.2%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 37.8%.
Master looks at the trend:
Bitcoin’s base rate in the U.S. is currently 0.5%p, while Japan’s interest rates have been frozen, leading to a more positive market reaction.
From a technical analysis perspective, a "hidden top divergence" has already formed on the current chart. In this case, we can first focus on the area near the previous high point and make short-term adjustments.
Since the bullish sentiment in the market is currently good, we can once again look at it from a rebound perspective during the correction period.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 64300
Second resistance level: 65000
The first resistance level has not yet been reached. From a consolidation perspective, if resistance is retested again, the upside potential is as high as 65K.
Because a hidden downside divergence has formed, rather than a breakout of the current resistance, we would increase the probability of a retest of the highs after the correction.
Support level reference:
First support level: 63200
Second support level: 62500
If the price falls near the first support, it can be judged as a ultra-short-term support.
The current consolidation does not come from a big negative line, but it must reach the first support line with several small K lines. At present, I temporarily think it is in a healthy consolidation zone, so you can pay attention to whether the bottom of the K line is formed during the day and look for opportunities to enter the short-term.
In today's trading, as the market sentiment is good, the view of short-term rebound can be maintained as the main focus.
Since the bulls are strong, a potential divergence is formed, so we can consider it as a short-term correction.
9.20 Master's short-term pre-buried order:
Long entry reference: 62100-62500 range, long in batches, 500 points of defense, 63200-64300
Short entry reference: 64000-64500 range short in short to defend 500 points target 63200-62500
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