A quick overview of important events this week (9/15-9/21)
- This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve officially announced a 2-digit interest rate cut . Cryptocurrencies and leading U.S. stocks rose. Bitcoin once exceeded $64,000.
- FTX stated on the 16th that creditors who have access to the FTX customer claims website can already upload pre-allocated tax information, allowing creditors to receive final repayments.
- Binance successively listed Neiro, causing controversy in the community. He Yi also posted a long article explaining that he had no intention of guiding the meme currency trend.
- The Telegram mini-game Catizen (CATI) was officially launched for trading on Friday night. It once soared to $1.12 and then fell back.
- Arthur Hayes said that in addition to the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, special attention should be paid to the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen . The Bank of Japan decided to maintain interest rates this Friday, which also gave the market a sigh of relief.
- Beijing’s big move is to announce the deployment of national blockchain nodes, among which “ Chang’an Chain ” plays an important role
- BingX exchange's hot wallet was hacked on Friday and the official suspended withdrawals. It was not until Saturday morning that some asset withdrawals on the BSC chain and TRX chain were resumed , and the official stated that a compensation plan would be announced.
Changes in trading market data this week
Sentiments and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week's market sentiment indicator rose from 38.35 (fear) to 48.07 (neutral). Market sentiment returned to the "neutral range" after the two-point rate cut.
2. Funding rate heat map
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trend of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies. The color ranges from green with zero rate to yellow with 50% positive rate. Black represents negative rate; the white K-line chart shows the price fluctuation of Bitcoin. , in contrast to the funding rate.
This week’s Bitcoin funding rate showed that it reached a maximum of 11.8%, and only once this week was a negative funding rate. Overall, the color block on the right side is yellowish. After the U.S. interest rate cut, the price of BTC increased significantly, and the funding rate continued to be positive on most crypto assets, indicating that the market demand for crypto assets is increasing, especially in Bitcoin. In case of price recovery.
3. Section
According to artemis data, the average growth rate of the blockchain sector this week was 2.8%, with data availability, Defi, and AI occupying the top three gains at 34.5%, 11.4%, and 7.1% respectively.
The three worst-performing blockchain areas are DePIN (-6.5%), staking services (-2.8%), and centralized exchanges (-2.5%).
market liquidity
1. The total market value of cryptocurrencies and the total supply of stablecoins doubled this week’s weekly growth rate.
Data on the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies this week showed that it rose from US$2.04 trillion last week to US$2.17 trillion, an increase of US$130 billion, and the total market value increased by approximately 6.37%.
The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased this week from $158.2 billion to $159.46 billion, an increase of $1.26 billion, or approximately 0.796%.
2. Increased potential purchasing power within the exchange
Data this week shows that the growth of stablecoins on exchanges, especially USDT, shows an increase in the market’s potential purchasing power, which may indicate further market activity in the future and investor demand for crypto assets may increase (generally buying crypto The currency path is to change fiat currency into stable currency, and the next step is to use stable currency to purchase cryptocurrency).
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow of funds
Bitcoin ETF capital inflows this week were US$413 million, showing that capital outflows turned into inflows.
2. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin is in the "Consider Buying" range ($63,000) and is close to the "Special Sale" stage ($51,000). This may be a potential buying opportunity. The market still believes that Bitcoin Coin is undervalued.
3. Bitcoin capital inflows and outflows have stopped
Realized Cap is a Glassnode base metric that evaluates the cumulative net flow of capital in and out of the Bitcoin network.
Capital inflows and outflows have both come to a halt as markets have been on a downward but range-bound trajectory over the past six months. Over the past two months, the cap has been reached and stabilized at $622 billion. This shows that most cryptocurrencies on trade are trading close to their original purchase price.
4. Bitcoin’s net profit and loss performance is similar to that in September last year
Assessing the realized net profit and loss metric via Bitcoin, one can see that profit and loss forces are largely equal, resulting in marginal net flows and general oscillations around the zero boundary. This suggests a degree of equilibrium is being established in the market and bears some similarities to the August-September period last year.
5. The continued diminishing increase in long-term Bitcoin holders
According to on-chain data , the net position of long-term holders (LTH) has maintained a decreasing increase over the past seven days, showing that the market’s long-term confidence in Bitcoin has not been broken.
Starting from the end of July, the net position of long-term holders has obviously turned from negative to positive. Especially from mid-August to September, the increase gradually expanded, showing that long-term holders are continuously accumulating Bitcoin positions.
6. The purchasing power selling pressure on the Bitcoin chain decreases
According to on-chain data , the pressure on short-term holders (STH) to reduce their positions has eased, indicating that the market’s short-term confidence in Bitcoin is gradually improving.
The increase in holdings by long-term holders slowed down, but as short-term holders gradually transformed into long-term holders after the 155-day holding period, long-term holdings increased steadily, while short-term holdings gradually decreased.
7. High contract positions on Bitcoin exchanges
According to the data , Bitcoin contract open interest rose rapidly and reached a peak from mid-March to mid-April, and then declined from mid-April to May, but remained at a high level, indicating that market sentiment has cooled. But still active. By mid-September, open interest increased significantly again.
Binance, as the exchange with the largest open interest, has a contract position of US$73.8 billion, showing its dominant position in the BTC contract market; the CME exchange has a contract position of US$87.3 billion, indicating that institutional investors are interested in the BTC contract market. Participation was extremely high. In addition, exchanges such as Bybit, OKX and Deribit also have relatively high open interest, and these platforms have a strong influence in the derivatives market.
Important technical indicators of Ethereum
1. Ethereum spot ETF funds continue to experience net outflows
This week, Ethereum ETF funds have converted into net inflows in the past two days, but overall funds are still continuing to outflow, and the market performance needs to be continuously observed.
2. Bitcoin first fell and then rose.
This week’s data shows that the correlations between BTC, ETH, and SOL are 0.87 and 0.84 respectively. The correlation between ETH and SOL is extremely high, reaching 0.97. This shows that the market is highly interconnected and investors’ psychology and expectations between different currencies. Highly consistent.
3. Ethereum Bull Market Retracement Correction History
Data shows that Ethereum has experienced multiple bull and bear markets, and the magnitude of the retracement has gradually decreased, which seems to show that the market is gradually maturing and risk tolerance has increased. The recent retracement, while smaller, has been longer lasting.
Market analysis news this week
1. Will Bitcoin plummet if the Federal Reserve cuts the code by 2? You should pay more attention to the two key points after the Fed’s decision
The Federal Reserve is expected to start an interest rate cut cycle this week, and the market is concerned about whether the Fed will cut interest rates by one or two cents. Experts worry that if it cuts interest rates by two cents, it will make the market suspect that the U.S. economy has fallen into recession, and the pace of interest rate cuts will lag behind. Bitcoin prices may will fall under pressure. ( continue reading )
2. The lazy bag of Fed decision-making: 2 reasons for Ball’s sharp interest rate cut, interest rate dot plot, and shift to focus on employment
The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 2 percentage points in one fell swoop early Thursday morning, lowering the benchmark interest rate by 0.5% to 4.75% to 5%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized at the post-meeting press conference that significant interest rate cuts will not become the norm. The decision to cut interest rates this time is to maintain the stability of the economy and the job market, rather than to express serious concerns about the economy. ( continue reading )
3. Bitcoin according to BlackRock: Risks and returns are completely different from traditional assets!
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, believes that the drivers of Bitcoin adoption in the long term may be different from, or even opposite to, the global macroview factors for most traditional financial assets. ( continue reading )
4. Arthur Hayes breaks through: "The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen" determines everything! Ethereum may benefit from interest rate cuts..
Arthur Hayes gave a speech at Token 2049. He said that the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates will be directly related to the future market direction, but special attention should be paid to the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen. Additionally he mentioned that Ethereum might benefit from an interest rate cut…. ( continue reading )
5. Rich dad: Trump and Kamala Harris cannot solve the US$35 trillion debt, only Bitcoin can save it
Rich dad Robert Kiyosaki said that it makes no difference whether Trump or Harris becomes president this year. The real problem is the huge debt of US$35 trillion in the United States. None of them can solve this problem. Only Bitcoin can save it. ( continue reading )
Cryptocurrency regulatory status in various countries
1. The aftermath of FTX’s bankruptcy》Crypto-friendly bank Silvergate’s parent company files for bankruptcy
Silvergate Capital Corporation, the parent company of the US crypto-friendly bank Silvergate, recently filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the Delaware Bankruptcy Code. The bankruptcy application shows that the company’s assets range from US$100 million to US$500 million, and its liabilities are US$1,000. Between 10,000 and 50 million US dollars. ( continue reading )
2. Louisiana in the United States accepts Bitcoin payments, and Trump’s purchase of burgers with BTC in New York became the focus
The state of Louisiana has officially announced that it will accept cryptocurrencies as a legal payment method. In addition, former US President Trump also used Bitcoin to buy burgers at a Bitcoin-themed bar in New York. ( continue reading )
3. SBF’s appeal against FTX “is not closed for 25 years”! Calling the judicial process unfair and demanding that the sentence be reduced to 6.5 years
SBF, the founder of bankrupt exchange FTX, formally appealed after being sentenced to 25 years in prison by Judge Lewis A. Kaplan. His legal team accused Judge Kaplan of showing clear bias against SBF during the trial and alleged procedural irregularities, saying there was an "illegal" confiscation order and that SBF failed to obtain evidence favorable to its defence. ( continue reading )
The Beijing Municipal Party Committee today issued the implementation opinions of "Implementing the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Promoting Chinese-style Modernization" stating that Beijing will promote the construction of national blockchain hub nodes in Beijing, improve the energy efficiency of computing infrastructure, and build a blockchain-based A first-class information facility system that focuses on ( continue reading )
Market focus next week
9/23 (Monday)
- United States: Manufacturing PMI in September, previous value 47.9
- United States: Services PMI in September, previous value 55.7
9/24 (Tue)
- Australia: September interest rate decision, previous value 4.35%
- United States: Conference Board consumer confidence in September, previous value 103.3
9/25 (Wednesday)
- US: New Home Sales in August, previous value 739K
- United States: Crude oil inventories, previous value -1.630M
9/26 (Thursday)
- United States: Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP), forecast 3.0%, previous value 1.4%
- Switzerland: Third quarter interest rate decision, previous value 1.25%
- United States: Initial Jobless Claims
- United States: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks
9/27 (Friday)
- United States: August core PCE price index (compared to the same period last year), previous value 2.6%
- United States: August core PCE price index (compared to previous month), previous value 0.2%
Recommended interview videos
1. Flipster CEO Yongjin Kim reveals winning strategies in Taiwan’s highly competitive cryptocurrency trading market
( Video link )
Top 5 popular articles this week
1. Will Taiwan’s subprime mortgage crisis explode? Expert: The credit GDP ratio is “the highest in history at 166%”, approaching the 2008 level in the United States
Regarding the recent issue of loan restrictions in the housing market, Professor Xu Zhiqiang of the Cathay Pacific National Taiwan University team believes that imposing loan restrictions is the right move, because the proportion of Taiwan’s private sector credit to GDP has reached a record high of 166%, which is about to reach the level of the US subprime mortgage crisis. ( continue reading )
The central bank is mainly based on risk management considerations. It is afraid that leverage will continue indefinitely, so it has the so-called loan restriction order. Now the international economy is fine, but if the economy reverses, the deleveraging process in the future will be very painful, which will be harmful to Taiwan. The economy caused a lot of damage. Just like the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States spent a long time deleveraging.
2. "Horror data" will hit tomorrow night, UBS: Weak consumption will cause the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points before the end of the year
Before the Federal Reserve is about to announce its latest interest rate decision, the market is also paying close attention to the US retail sales data on the 17th, which is known as the "horror data". ( continue reading )
Our "base case" is that the Fed will cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points over the remainder of this year and another 100 basis points in 2025. The U.S. dollar weakened and gold strengthened as interest rate cuts gathered pace.
3. Is it possible for Ke Wenzhe to earn "1,500" Bitcoins? Experts slap famous people in the face: Except for one situation, there is a high probability of spreading rumors
Senior media person Chen Minfeng recently questioned that the "2022/11/1 Xiao Shen 1500 Shen Qingjing" mentioned by former Taipei Mayor Ko Wenzhe in the USB accounting content seized by the prosecutors, 1500 refers to the acceptance of 1500 Bitcoin bribes. However, cryptocurrency experts analyze that this possibility is quite low, because large amounts of Bitcoin in and out are very easy to investigate. ( continue reading )
4. The Indian prodigy talks about Bitcoin’s “big rebound in 2025” and Taiwan may be invaded by China at two points in time
During the Asia Blockchain Summit (ABS), an exclusive interview between Indian prodigy Anand and Internet celebrity Zeng Boen was recently exposed. Anand predicted that cryptocurrency will rebound by the end of the year, and talked about the two points in time when China invaded Taiwan. The content was exciting It aroused enthusiastic praise from the audience. ( continue reading )
I usually conduct relevant research, and I have predicted technological trends many times in the past, so the organizer invited me to give a lecture on technological development from an astrological perspective. At the same time, Taiwan also held some astrological events and conferences. This is what I The reason for coming to Taiwan.
5. Binance He Yi: Is the crypto going to end? Binance chooses to lie flat? Detailed explanation of currency listing strategy
He Yi, the co-founder of Binance, who is known as the first lady in the crypto , wrote an article to share her recent views on hot topics related to the crypto and Binance, and responded to the community’s doubts about Binance’s currency listing strategy this year. ( continue reading )
