火星财经消息，据金十数据，安永首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科（Gregory Daco）表示，美联储是在“反应式”而非前瞻性地降息。在7月会议结束两天后发布的数据显示，失业率上升至4.3%，引发了人们对于美联储等待太久才采取行动的担忧。虽然8月份失业率降至4.2%，但如果未来几个月再次上升，同样的担忧可能会重现。达科表示：“美联储决策者必须采用一个强大的前瞻框架，并放弃依赖数据的做法，不幸的是，他们目前为止还没有做到。”
鲍威尔面临的另一个挑战是，华尔街预计的未来降息次数多于美联储决策者的预测。本周，决策者估计2024年底前还会再降息两次，每次25个基点，2025年再降息四次。摩根大通首席经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）表示，他仍预计降息速度会快于美联储共识。费罗利预计，如果接下来的两次就业报告进一步疲软，在11月初的下一次会议会有50个基点的降息。
美联储内部对降息路径也存在分歧。在利率制定委员会中，7名决策者支持年底前再降息25个基点，9名成员支持额外降息50个基点，2名决策者预计不会再降息。这种分歧反映了对经济前景的不同判断，也增加了鲍威尔协调的难度。美联储理事鲍曼投票反对50个基点的降息，支持25个基点降息，这是自2005年以来美联储首次出现反对票。达科表示：“美联储主席（鲍威尔）现在被认为对联邦公开市场委员会具有重大影响力，因为他成功说服大多数官员提前降息是最优的，但代价是决策者或在接下来的两次政策会议上更抵制快速降息。”

<div>火星财经消息，据金十数据，安永首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科（Gregory Daco）表示，美联储是在“反应式”而非前瞻性地降息。在7月会议结束两天后发布的数据显示，失业率上升至4.3%，引发了人们对于美联储等待太久才采取行动的担忧。虽然8月份失业率降至4.2%，但如果未来几个月再次上升，同样的担忧可能会重现。达科表示：“美联储决策者必须采用一个强大的前瞻框架，并放弃依赖数据的做法，不幸的是，他们目前为止还没有做到。”<p>鲍威尔面临的另一个挑战是，华尔街预计的未来降息次数多于美联储决策者的预测。本周，决策者估计2024年底前还会再降息两次，每次25个基点，2025年再降息四次。摩根大通首席经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）表示，他仍预计降息速度会快于美联储共识。费罗利预计，如果接下来的两次就业报告进一步疲软，在11月初的下一次会议会有50个基点的降息。</p><p>美联储内部对降息路径也存在分歧。在利率制定委员会中，7名决策者支持年底前再降息25个基点，9名成员支持额外降息50个基点，2名决策者预计不会再降息。这种分歧反映了对经济前景的不同判断，也增加了鲍威尔协调的难度。美联储理事鲍曼投票反对50个基点的降息，支持25个基点降息，这是自2005年以来美联储首次出现反对票。达科表示：“美联储主席（鲍威尔）现在被认为对联邦公开市场委员会具有重大影响力，因为他成功说服大多数官员提前降息是最优的，但代价是决策者或在接下来的两次政策会议上更抵制快速降息。”</p></div>

安永首席经济学家：美联储是在“反应式”而非前瞻性地降息

According to the news from Mars Finance, Gregory Daco, the chief economist at Ernst & Young, stated that the Federal Reserve is reacting rather than being forward-looking in cutting interest rates. Data released two days after the July meeting showed that the unemployment rate had risen to 4.3%, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to take action. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August, the same concerns may resurface if it rises again in the coming months. Daco said, "Federal Reserve policymakers must adopt a robust forward-looking framework and abandon their data-dependent approach, which unfortunately they have not done so far."

Another challenge facing Powell is that Wall Street expects more future rate cuts than the Federal Reserve's projections. This week, policymakers estimated that there will be two more 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2024, and four more in 2025. Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan, said he still expects the pace of rate cuts to be faster than the Federal Reserve's consensus. Feroli expects a 50-basis-point rate cut at the next meeting in early November if the next two employment reports further weaken.

There is also a divide within the Federal Reserve on the path of rate cuts. In the interest rate setting committee, 7 policymakers support an additional 25-basis-point cut by the end of the year, 9 members support an additional 50-basis-point cut, and 2 policymakers expect no further cuts. This division reflects different assessments of the economic outlook and adds to the difficulty of Powell's coordination. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman voted against a 50-basis-point cut and supported a 25-basis-point cut, which is the first dissenting vote at the Federal Reserve since 2005. Daco said, "Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is now seen as having a significant influence on the Federal Open Market Committee, as he has successfully persuaded most officials that an early rate cut is optimal, but at the cost of policymakers potentially being more resistant to rapid rate cuts in the next two policy meetings."

<div>According to Jinshi Data, Gregory Daco, chief economist of Ernst &amp; Young, said that the Fed was cutting interest rates &quot;reactively&quot; rather than proactively. Data released two days after the July meeting showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, raising concerns that the Fed waited too long to act. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August, the same concerns may reappear if it rises again in the coming months. &quot;Fed policymakers must adopt a strong forward-looking framework and abandon data-dependence, which, unfortunately, they have not done so far,&quot; Daco said.<p> Another challenge for Powell is that Wall Street is pricing in more rate cuts in the future than Fed policymakers predict. This week, policymakers estimated two more 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2024 and four more in 2025. Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., said he still expects rate cuts to come faster than the Fed consensus. Feroli expects a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting in early November if the next two jobs reports are further weak.</p><p> There are also differences within the Fed on the path of rate cuts. In the interest rate-setting committee, seven policymakers support another 25 basis point rate cut before the end of the year, nine members support an additional 50 basis point rate cut, and two policymakers do not expect further rate cuts. This divergence reflects different judgments on the economic outlook and increases the difficulty of Powell&#39;s coordination. Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman voted against a 50 basis point rate cut and supported a 25 basis point rate cut, the first dissenting vote at the Fed since 2005. Daco said: &quot;Federal Reserve Chairman (Powell) is now considered to have significant influence on the Federal Open Market Committee because he has successfully convinced most officials that early rate cuts are optimal, but at the cost of policymakers being more resistant to rapid rate cuts at the next two policy meetings.&quot;</p></div>

EY Chief Economist: The Fed is cutting rates "reactively" rather than proactively

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated that he respects and appreciates the views of his colleagues who are inclined to take a more aggressive rate cut, and he remains committed to working with them to ensure that the policy is properly positioned to achieve the dual mandate goal. The economy remains strong, the labor market is close to full employment, and he believes the Federal Reserve is moving at a moderate pace towards a more neutral policy stance, which will ensure further progress in restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target. It was appropriate to readjust the federal funds rate level at the September meeting, but he was more inclined to implement the first rate cut in a smaller magnitude, concerned that a more aggressive policy action by the Federal Reserve could be interpreted prematurely as a declaration of victory against inflation. (Jinshi)

Fed Governor Bowman: I respect and appreciate my colleagues' opinions that they prefer to take a larger interest rate cut

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Federal Reserve Governor Waller (when asked about a 50-basis-point rate cut) said that this is an appropriate number, and that the inflation data prompted him to support a 50-basis-point rate cut, and he also added that he had mentioned in a speech two weeks ago that a 25-basis-point rate cut would be a good choice, but he was also open to a 50-basis-point rate cut. (Jinshi)

Fed Governor Waller: Inflation data supports a 50 basis point rate cut

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The campaign team of US Vice President Harris has criticized Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in four years, and has focused on economic issues ahead of the November presidential election. After the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points on September 19, Trump expressed his view that this was a "political move" and said a 25 basis point cut would have been appropriate. He had previously suggested that the independent central bank should be subject to some degree of executive control.

A campaign memo shows that Harris' senior policy advisor Brian Nelson called Trump's response "reckless". Trump claimed without evidence that the Fed's decision was politically motivated, "trying to keep someone in power", although he did not say in his Newsmax interview that he supported higher interest rates. The White House said the rate cut was "welcome news".

Before the Harris campaign's information release, Trump is scheduled to give a speech in North Carolina on Saturday, where he is expected to discuss economic issues unfavorable to Harris, including the highest inflation rate in the US in 40 years during the Biden presidency, and polls that have consistently supported Trump's handling of the economy.

In contrast, Nelson believes that Trump "would bring an economic disaster as president", noting that forecasts suggest higher tariffs and continued tax cuts for the wealthy could have inflationary effects.