Odaily星球日报讯 新西兰 Judo Bank 首席经济学家贾罗德•科尔表示，新西兰最新的经济报告证明，限制性货币政策已经造成了足以抑制通胀压力的损害。他说，新西兰联储正在做出回应，但为时已晚。10 月降息已接近板上钉钉，科尔主张降息 50 个基点，11 月进一步降息 50 个基点。科尔表示，官方现金利率需要以高达 300 个基点的速度下降。（金十）

机构：新西兰联储限制性货币政策已致损害，呼吁大幅降息

Odaily Odaily News: Jarrod Cole, chief economist of Judo Bank in New Zealand, said that New Zealand&#39;s latest economic report proves that restrictive monetary policy has caused enough damage to curb inflationary pressure. He said that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is responding, but it is too late. The October rate cut is almost a done deal, and Cole advocates a 50 basis point cut and a further 50 basis point cut in November. Cole said that the official cash rate needs to fall at a rate of up to 300 basis points. (Jinshi)

Institution: New Zealand Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy has caused damage, calling for a sharp rate cut

Odaily News: According to Hartnett, a well-known strategist at Bank of America, the market's current reaction to the Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point rate cut seems to be following the "soft cut" or "panic cut" script. The US stock and credit markets are digesting the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 250 basis points by the end of 2025 and that S&P 500 earnings will grow 18%. "The risk is not that great, so investors are forced to chase the rally," and "bubble risk" is making a comeback. Hartnett explained in his latest report that on Wall Street, "panic cuts" are the preferred option when there is no panic (at least not yet). At the same time, the Federal Reserve hopes to cut rates by 50 basis points so that the real interest rate can decline from its highest level this century, preventing the small business sector, which is already in recession, from further layoffs.

Bank of America: The current market reaction to the Fed's 50bp rate cut seems to be following the script of "soft rate cut" or "panic rate cut"

Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan, released a Secretary's Note, in which he pointed out that the US Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rate cut in more than four years, and that major central banks around the world had also cut interest rates earlier, strengthening the market's expectation of a gradual decline in global interest rates. The loose financial environment has also benefited the sentiment of the asset market and the business environment. Although under the linked exchange rate system, the future interest rate trend in Hong Kong can be expected to be largely the same as the US interest rate, the pace and extent of the rate cut will depend on the local capital flow and market conditions.

Against the backdrop of a gradually improving environment, it is more necessary to further intensify efforts to promote the Hong Kong market. As risk appetite gradually recovers and investors chase higher returns, Hong Kong's market should explore a wider and more diversified source of funds. After the listing of the first Asia-Pacific exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking Saudi Arabian stocks in Hong Kong at the end of last year, the Saudi Capital Market Authority recently announced the approval of the first ETF investing in Hong Kong stocks, which will be listed on the Saudi stock exchange, allowing capital from Saudi Arabia and the Middle East to invest directly in Hong Kong-listed stocks more conveniently. Hong Kong will continue to strengthen its promotion in traditional and emerging markets, and believes that with the decline in interest rates, it will be able to better leverage capital from different markets to inject new momentum into Hong Kong's capital market.

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the overall environment has gradually turned relatively favorable

According to the news from Mars Finance, Gregory Daco, the chief economist at Ernst & Young, stated that the Federal Reserve is reacting rather than being forward-looking in cutting interest rates. Data released two days after the July meeting showed that the unemployment rate had risen to 4.3%, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve had waited too long to take action. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August, the same concerns may resurface if it rises again in the coming months. Daco said, "Federal Reserve policymakers must adopt a robust forward-looking framework and abandon their data-dependent approach, which unfortunately they have not done so far."

Another challenge facing Powell is that Wall Street expects more future rate cuts than the Federal Reserve's projections. This week, policymakers estimated that there will be two more 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2024, and four more in 2025. Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan, said he still expects the pace of rate cuts to be faster than the Federal Reserve's consensus. Feroli expects a 50-basis-point rate cut at the next meeting in early November if the next two employment reports further weaken.

There is also a divide within the Federal Reserve on the path of rate cuts. In the interest rate setting committee, 7 policymakers support an additional 25-basis-point cut by the end of the year, 9 members support an additional 50-basis-point cut, and 2 policymakers expect no further cuts. This division reflects different assessments of the economic outlook and adds to the difficulty of Powell's coordination. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman voted against a 50-basis-point cut and supported a 25-basis-point cut, which is the first dissenting vote at the Federal Reserve since 2005. Daco said, "Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is now seen as having a significant influence on the Federal Open Market Committee, as he has successfully persuaded most officials that an early rate cut is optimal, but at the cost of policymakers potentially being more resistant to rapid rate cuts in the next two policy meetings."