Author: Web3 Observation, Bijie.com
For a long time, Bitcoin has been regarded as an asset with huge potential investment value, and its high volatility has also brought more investment opportunities.
Although Bitcoin prices are highly volatile, its investment logic is deeply consistent with the traditional value investment concept. Value investment emphasizes long-term holding and ignores short-term fluctuations. Bitcoin's price fluctuations provide an opportunity to hold for a long time and wait for the market to recognize its value.
As an emerging asset, Bitcoin is often underestimated due to market misunderstanding, which is in line with the reverse operation concept in value investment. At the same time, its compound growth potential is also reflected in the investment process. Bitcoin's long-term appreciation potential and its anti-inflation characteristics can bring investors stable long-term returns.
As of press time on September 18, the price of Bitcoin was $60,483.9, a daily increase of nearly 5%. The current total market value of Bitcoin is $1.186 trillion, and its market share is 57.1%.
The current market sentiment is generally optimistic, and it is expected that the price of Bitcoin will soon break through $70,000 or even higher. This expectation is based on a number of key upcoming events, which may provide strong support for the price of Bitcoin, reverse the bearish attitude of some investors, and promote a new round of rising waves.
Five factors may push Bitcoin prices to a new all-time high soon
1. Expectations of a Fed rate cut
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut borrowing rates soon, and historical data shows that whenever the Fed cuts rates, the price of Bitcoin benefits.
The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 19. If the meeting announces a rate cut, it will further enhance the market's confidence in high-risk assets such as Bitcoin. The rate cut will inject more liquidity into the Bitcoin market, thereby pushing up Bitcoin prices. However, analysts predict that after this Fed meeting, Bitcoin prices may experience significant fluctuations.
2. The S&P 500 hits a record high
On September 16, the S&P 500 equal-weighted index hit a record high of 176.55 points, a rally that began on September 11 and continued to see capital inflows into the index's stocks. This is a positive sign for Bitcoin, as Bitcoin has a strong positive correlation with the stock market's price performance.
According to IntoTheBlock data, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is currently 0.73, indicating that the price trends of the two are highly consistent. Therefore, as the S&P 500 continues to rise, the price of Bitcoin is likely to reverse and is expected to hit $70,000.
3. Binance founder CZ is about to be released
Binance founder CZ(CZ) will be released on September 29, which is expected to bring more positive sentiment to the Bitcoin market. As a key figure in the cryptocurrency field, CZ's return is likely to attract a large number of investors to return to the market, thereby driving up the price of Bitcoin. After his arrest, the cryptocurrency market fell for a time, so his release is an important positive signal for the market.
4. Bitcoin tends to have strong price performance in the fourth quarter
According to historical data, the fourth quarter is usually a period of strong performance for Bitcoin. According to Coinglass data, in the halving years of 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin's monthly returns in the fourth quarter were positive.
In line with this, Bitcoin could see price increases in October, November, and December of this year. A price increase starting in October could push Bitcoin prices to $70,000, and even break through $100,000 in the next few years.
5. The rebound effect after halving
Historically, Bitcoin prices have seen a strong rally about 150 days after the halving. As cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davies highlights, the post-halving rally in the 2021 bull run began 160 days after the halving event. As the market approaches this time point, Bitcoin prices could be boosted again and see a larger rise by the end of the year.
This pattern has been verified after the past few rounds of halving events, so investors remain optimistic about the upcoming post-halving rebound.
summary
In summary, Bitcoin's future performance is driven by multiple factors such as the Fed's policy, the rise of the S&P 500, the return of the founder of Binance, the seasonal trend in the fourth quarter, and the halving effect. It is expected to hit $70,000 in the next few months, but the short-term volatility is still large. At the same time, from the perspective of value investment, long-term holding of Bitcoin conforms to many classic investment concepts, making it a modern investment target worthy of in-depth study and attention.
In the current economic environment, Bitcoin prices are not only affected by market sentiment and policy changes, but are also closely related to the dynamics of global financial markets. In particular, with global central banks likely to cut interest rates and capital markets rising, Bitcoin is expected to attract more capital inflows.
