Every year after Token2049 comes to an end, it’s time for essays. This article has selected 8 essays so that you can feel the crypto pulse of Singapore without going to Singapore.
Jewish Director Zhao: Cycle, Dawn and Liquidity Incompetence
1. I have never seen European and American project teams working so hard.
2. In the past, white men would just talk about making movies, and the Asian market would shut up and take my money. But this year, they actually have to hold a huge side event, dress up and show off, and even go directly to attract business. The last time I saw them working so hard was when Afro came to Beijing to raise funds in 2019.
3. The information gap between Europe, America and Asia is still huge:
3.1 European and American project teams still think that Asia still has money, so they want to continue exploiting it by constantly splitting and acquiring new assets. Unfortunately, the Asian market is really out of money, and there is not a drop left.
3.2 As for where the money has gone, the contract products of Asian exchanges have continued the fine tradition and eaten up most of the liquidity. The BTC ecosystem ( Inscription Rune Layer 2 ) has also successfully monopolized the asset issuance business in Europe and the United States through the Bitcoin Asia narrative. Forcibly reviving a new track for the Asia-Pacific region, the two took away most of Asia's liquidity.
4. The incapacity of liquidity in the Asian market also made this year’s essay in the Chinese section so difficult to write. Even after a busy week, the participants could not express any feelings, because whether they are capital investors, project developers, KOLs or retail investors, basically bullets They were all gone, so attending this year’s conference was like a eunuch visiting a brothel. My heart felt calm, and there were even some moments where I felt so Buddhist that I no longer wanted to make money.
5. After all, whoever wants to make money is a leek. The best way to make money is to make money from the person who wants to make money.
6. SOL’s Breakpoint is the most eye-catching Side Event this year. As for Ethereum, whether it is foundation or Layer 2, there is no decent event to prove its existence:
6.1. If the V god in April is still "Web3 Han Xiandi", then the little V who sells coins and falls in love in September can only be "Ethereum Zhou Youwang".
6.2. Singing on stage is like completing the public shame mission of the hostess Bao Si.
6.3. The ignorant clamor to "ban down some substandard Layer 2" is really like a foolish king who loves beauty but not the country, and insists on cutting off the vassal even though he has trouble tying the chicken.
6.4. I really want to see how Web3 works "clearly"
7. As for the cycle, this year’s rise is not a new bull market, but the remnant of the 21-22 year cycle . This is why this year’s market is infinitely close to that of 2019. If you don’t believe it, look at your Altcoin positions. Are most of them issued in 2021?
2019 is not far from the beginning of a new cycle with the DeFi Summer in August 2020. Of course, it is also closer to 312.
8. The primary market is full of the tragic feeling of self-care, and the tragic feeling is a very dangerous signal. After all, if you don’t invest and wait for death, you will seek death if you invest.
9. The market will wear away the patience of most people in the shock, and new directions will also grow quietly in silence. Real-name optimistic directions include:
9.1 Consumer Electronics’ DePIN project
9.2 CeDeFi RWA serves as the underlying pledge to issue stable currency project (BlackRock Buidl+USDM)
9.3 All on-chain transactions + all tools to increase on-chain leverage (Perp Dex)
10. The new cycle is not far away, but the darkness before the dawn is difficult to see, and it is also the time that tests the most mental strength . The combination of traditional finance and Crypto will exceed expectations in the near future. Whether the crypto chickens or dogs ascend to heaven, Regardless of accepting the recruitment, you will face an infinite sea of stars that you have never experienced before.
11. You cannot fall before dawn. Each of us, as the last line of defense in the industry, cannot fall, because there is no one behind us.
12. A word of encouragement to all of you: People who come out of the storm never rely on umbrellas.
Ruby (Incuba Alpha): Industry reshuffle underway
1. The industry is reshuffling, small and medium-sized VCs are clearing out, and many dpi cannot achieve 1. On the contrary, top VCs continue to grow and close new rounds quickly within 5 months. Only investing in early tasteful incubators or vertical VCs focusing on ecology can leverage ultra-high odds/vertical competitive advantages to find survival space.
2. Regulation is the elephant in the room, but Americans are more optimistic about US regulation than China. Rather than fearing risks, it is more important to accurately assess risks and understand the risks you face.
3. MM is still the core player. There are many new MMs. The ability of founding team selection and PUA MM has also become one of the core capabilities. It can judge the bear market and bull market environment and formulate a suitable MM deal structure.
4. The most discussed application tracks are Socialfi and AI Crypto. There are hard barriers for the implementation of AI, and we need to wait for the inflection point of technological breakthrough. Pumpfun is the most successful SocialFi. The socialfi that is truly suitable for Web3 is not Web3 Twitter, but a social casino.
5. Quantitative returns have been further compressed, and many quantitative teams that have left A-shares are entering Crypto.
6. BTC, stablecoin/payment, and casino are the only biz models currently proven effective in the industry. Stablecoins have become the new king of volume at level one, but no one can figure out how to break Tethe's network effect. Everyone must be prepared for what we will do if there is no new innovation in the future and all increases will only be bought in BTC.
7. Ecological perspective: Solana breakpoint is more lively than the main venue, and developers are optimistic that the firedance update will break Solana's "downtime chain" curse. "pay now buy never" tries to add Ponzi to the payment track.
8. The ecological traffic effect of Ton has begun to ferment, and the ecology is crazy about small applications. Several VCs focusing on games have settled in with a Web2 game team. It is unclear whether they will tear off the fig leaf of false traffic or bring VC and GameFi Ponzi Subsidies transform TG wool enthusiasts into effective retained users.
9. The AI ecosystem is a bit embarrassing. After the phased falsification of decentralized AI and Agentfi, the AI project that made a lot of money began to roll itself into a new Alt layer 1.
10. Listing Don’t be superstitious about authority and agents. What the exchange looks at is how many new users the project can bring. Good products, branding and communication are stronger than anything else.
0xLouisT (L1D Partner): ALT L1 is revived, GameFi has been forgotten
1. Fragmentation and competition for attention
One of the highlights of Token 2049 is that the number of Side Events has reached a record high (more than 600 events), reflecting the current decentralization of the field.
VC-funded projects are clearly vying for attention, striving to outdo each other in events, dinners and marketing. I sense that the private equity market is saturated and there is an overabundance of capital.
2. SOL and ETH
Without a doubt, Solana dominated the discussion. Breakpoint showcases an impressively strong Solana community.
Meanwhile, ETH is still grappling with its identity crisis. I've noticed a lack of Bayesian thinking among some ETH investors, who are still trying to update their thesis despite some recent data points.
It is worth noting that despite the low market sentiment, most people’s ETH holdings have barely changed. Most holders I know have not significantly adjusted their ETH allocations. However, cracks started to show as some people started exchanging ETH for SOL.
3. Alt L1 recovery?
Obviously, Solana's success and the ETH philosophical debate have reignited the new L1 topic like never before. Some claim that SOL will be an ETH killer, while others believe that other L1s may be SOL killers.
Monad and Berachain get a lot of attention, but when I ask people why they are bullish on it, the main argument boils down to one thing: their TPS is higher than the competition, and Sui is often mentioned as well. The question is: do we really need so much block space?
4. L1/L2 fails to switch to B2B technology provider
I have noticed that over the past year, some first-level L1/L2 have been struggling to attract attention and usage, and now they are turning to become infrastructure providers for Rollup and AppChain. These strategic shifts often focus on B2B transactions that do not create meaningful value for the token. This trend appears to be bearish for token holders, but could be bullish for equity holders.
5. What are fundamentals
There is a renewed focus on cryptocurrency fundamentals, but market participants don’t seem to agree on what those fundamentals are: profitability, cash flow, organic vs. inorganic revenue, trading volumes, transactions, TVL, TPS?
While it makes sense for cryptocurrencies to gradually move closer to fundamentals, I've noticed that heightened focus on fundamentals and cash flow often coincides with market bottoms. As Howard S. Marks said, the call for fundamental analysis is strongest when markets are at their lowest, as fear drives investors to quality assets.
6. Aave=DeFi?
The argument for a DeFi renaissance is gradually taking shape, however, with the exception of Aave (which is now quite common), most investors are still unconvinced by other DeFi investments... Might I suggest taking a look at Pendle?
7. VC and Liquid
At Token 2049, I spoke to many Tier 1 projects who are shifting their focus from venture capital to liquid funds with the goals of:
- Liquidity investors: due to lack of secondary buyers.
- Liquidity Providers: As competition for capital and attention increases.
Many venture capital firms have realized that the landscape is changing and are launching liquid funds. However, these funds are currently struggling to raise capital due to a lack of liquidity. The reason is simple: Most secondary funds have underperformed Bitcoin over the past year. I continue to believe that secondary funds will far outperform venture capital firms in this cycle.
8. Infrastructure and Applications
Slowly but surely people are beginning to acknowledge that we have lost ourselves in the bottom ivory tower. Encryption needs more applications and real use cases. DeFi and DePIN are the two most promising areas for new application development. Still, I haven't heard a consensus that people are excited about specific applications.
9. Use the product
I never thought I'd say this again, but using these products really gives you an edge. It’s crazy how many investors and researchers write 20-page reports without even using what they analyze.
After countless conversations, I estimate that at least 75% of investors are not actively involved in the products they invest in.
10. Hyperliquid: Perp DEX Chad
Hyperliquid is on a roll. The smooth user experience has quickly become the preferred exchange for many people. Opinions on it vary, some love it, some hate it.
Traders are quite transparent: some are sitting on huge points and betting big on token launches. It's hard to predict how it will perform initially, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
11. Memecoin is still not fully distributed
How you interpret this is up to you, but surprisingly most institutional funds and whales have a 0% position in any memecoin — not even DOGE or PEPE.
12. GameFi is forgotten
I hardly ever hear anyone mention or express excitement about Web3 games. I think this apathy marks an emotional bottom.
I believe we will see a resurgence in web3 gaming, and there are currently several projects offering very attractive R/R at their valuations - but that's a topic for another day...
Zolo (TechFlow Lianchuang): The industry is always driven by optimists
From WebX, KBW to TOKEN2049, each event is the ATH of previous attendees.
Another conference, what are you taking part in this year?
1. Dresscode , the trend set off by berachain, has finally affected everyone. Wearing a hood is considered basic. The best thing is that you can share it without wearing clothes. The purpose is the same, hoping to have publicity.
2. Look at DJs , look at the top 100 DJ rankings, look at the DJ’s figure, and even look at whether the DJ has hair.
3. Give awards . Many events this year will award awards. Most of the awards are not awards, but humanities and wisdom.
But speaking of awards, the most eye-catching award this year came from Breakpoint, which is also one of the best conferences I have attended recently.
Breakpoint2024, one of the best conferences this year
Main features:
- Most speakers only have 5 minutes, so sharing must be focused
- Add a debate format instead of just a boring panel
- An alternative awards ceremony, the social vibe is full of people
When you walk into the Solana showroom, you feel like it's like a Supermarket, not just visiting an exhibition.
From a project perspective, dozens of projects such as Jupiter, Pyth, Wormhole, Birdeye, etc. have released their own new products, and there are no peeing spots throughout the process.
The meeting was divided into two stages, from left to right and from right to left. I lost count of how many times I ran back and forth just to avoid missing some important links.
The meeting on the first day was from 10:30 in the morning to 6:00 in the afternoon. Thanks to the compact sessions and the agenda with almost no advertising, almost every sharing session was packed.
In the process of listening to the sharing, whether it is a round of applause for "Firedancer" or shouting "GO!" to "DeGods", you will find that the current Solana community has an extremely consistent consensus in the general direction.
We all know what the focus of Solana’s future development is;
Everyone knows which projects in the Solana ecosystem are truly loyal members;
Everyone knows the jokes in the Solana ecosystem that only their own people can understand.
It should be the consensus of many people that Solana is the Beta in this cycle. The non-consensus exists because many friends feel that after major projects such as Pyth, Jupiter, Wormhole, and Drift are launched, the Solana ecosystem seems to have no more alpha projects worth looking forward to. .
This is not the case.
For example, Backpack, Cube, Flashtrade, Sonic, Solayer, ComputeLabs, etc., developers on Solana are pouring in one after another, and they are creating more interesting things.
I remember that on the right side of the technical stage, the host asked at the beginning how many people were coming to Breakpoint for the first time. Almost half of the people raised their hands, and the proportion of new blood actually reached 50%!
After Solana rose from the bottom, the community became more resilient. Thanks to Solar for allowing me to participate in such an event.
Solana It’s great to have a community like yours.
Move series, another alpha besides Solana
During TOKEN 2049, Sui’s surge also attracted a lot of attention.
Sui Builder House is also one of the most popular events before TOKEN 2049.
In fact, I started following cx SUI around April this year. The main logic is:
1. Solana traffic overflow . For developers/speculators who think that the ecosystem on Solana is saturated, they will look for the next Alpha. In the last cycle, there were polygon, avalanche, etc., this cycle should be SUI, Ton, etc.;
2. The correlation between the Move language and RUST . We all know that it is not difficult to convert from RUST to Move. Therefore, whether the Solana project is squeezed out or you want to launch a new project as a side project, the Move system is a good choice, such as Solend. I went to SUI to do Suilend and so on. This applies to SUI, Aptos, and Movement;
3. Approval from technical friends . Currently, both Sui and Aptos have issued coins on the mainnet. After consulting some technical friends, many people feel that Sui’s technology and documentation are better.
At that time, there was no so-called Grayscale Trust and Native USDC on Sui. With the support of these two, I believe Sui will develop better.
Of course, overall, I am full of expectations for Sui, Aptos and Movement. When writing this content, $APTOS has also risen by 14%.
However, the problem with Sui is that there are really too few assets for speculation. Although SuiPlay has been launched and has the largest game booth at KBW in South Korea, the current star projects are still the previous Cetus, Turbos, Navi, Scallop, including Meme, there are two I can count them on my hands. I hope Cetus and Sui can get something more out of the incubation plan.
The problem with Aptos seems to be that the users/community are still a little confused as to which direction the foundation wants to go. Movement is the only Move-based project that has not issued coins yet. Stay tuned and hope to see some star cases soon.
After the interest rate cut was expected, everyone became a lot more optimistic.
From Japan, South Korea to Singapore, since I am a trading idiot, I can only seize every opportunity to ask my friends for their views on the market outlook. Generally speaking, everyone seems to be more optimistic.
Two or three months ago, most friends thought that the cycle was over, or that the bull market would last until Q4 this year and Q1 next year at most.
Looking at it now, it is a more conservative view that the bull market will reach Q1 next year. Many people think it can reach Q3 next year.
The main reason is that the interest rate cut cycle has begun, and 50 points is just the beginning. It will take time to release funds. At the same time, the asset outflow of US stocks/BTC has not yet started.
The main uncertainty lies in the November general election.
Although some people said before that everyone is looking for exit liquidity, some old people even expressed that they were very disappointed with the industry and could not see any innovation.
But my advice is, Let it Go.
Don't just look at the pessimistic side and let them go if they are disappointed.
In fact, there are still many hard-working founders and hard-working projects in the industry. It is true that some people are actively looking for exit liquidity, and some are actively posting memes and doing business; but there are also many people who are always exploring the development direction of the industry and are constantly trying to find PMF. There are also founders with high token rankings who are still there. Traveling from venue to venue to serve as a model worker.
For example, Jambo has sold more than 500,000 units since the "African mobile phone" in the last cycle, covering more than 120 countries. Jambo Phonev2 was also launched two days ago. Every time I meet with their founders, I can feel their passion for the project.
For example, Solv has gone from having difficulty finding PMF to now embracing the BTC ecosystem. Their tenacious team has allowed them to currently own $13 billion in solvBTC;
For example, Sonic has become famous from the very beginning when it was building a Marketplace for game projects to now building SVM;
For example, Matr1x, from launch, to currency listing, to testing, despite various doubts, is now officially launched for gold testing without deleting files.
In every cycle there will be people who are bearish on the industry, just as every project will experience different Fud.
Whether you are bullish or fud,
The industry is always driven by optimists. Without Fud, there would be no real community.
Let’s go all out for good things!
Captain Jack Sparrow: Faith in the primary market has collapsed, but don’t quit the table
1. Most panel guests are pessimistic about market expectations, and are even worried that if there is no new innovation and new growth by May next year, the overall market ecology may be reshuffled and reshaped;
2. Lack of innovation, the stock is concentrated at the top, and the top 15 coins weighted by number of users and market value, such as doge and shib, have fallen by 70-80% from their highest point, and others are even worse. (Based on the data I have seen, I guess the exchange trading volume may decrease by 80% from this year);
3. Decentralized stablecoins and payment applications, two infrastructure constructions, are obvious incremental tracks;
4. The belief in the primary market has collapsed. In the past two years, I have invested in primary market projects and made a small amount of money;
5. It is not easy to make money at Level 1, so professional financial institutions apply for Level 2. Li Lin spent US$500 million to play Level 2 quantitative fund of funds and entered the market quantitatively;
6. At present, we feel that there will be no more than 10 institutions with stable second-level quantitative capabilities;
7. Leeks fight against quantification. The strategy is to buy and hold the top 5 big coins, reduce transactions, and survive;
8. Leek, buy&hold, the trading volume of the exchange will decrease, the AUM will also decrease, and the exchange will feel uncomfortable;
9. Second-tier exchanges began to invest heavily in marketing. They participated in Bitget and XT activities, went overseas with Gate friends, and saw BingX and Weex marketing...So, the exchange's marketing costs will increase;
10. Ton Ecology, Solana Ecology, seems to have some structural trading opportunities;
11. As a veteran who entered the Internet industry in 2003, although I see problems, compared with the Internet in 2000, the number of employees, skills, infrastructure, number of users, total industry volume & growth space in subdivisions are still there. There will be a lot. So, don't leave the table.
Little Crow (Chief Editor of CryptoCity): Rich exhibitions and activities, but still lacking innovation
According to official statistics, TOKEN2049 has a total of more than 400 speeches and 700 side events, with as many as 200,000 people participating. In addition, this event will be followed by events such as the F1 car race and Solana Breakpoint, which has also led to a surge in accommodation costs in Singapore, huge queues, and even traffic jams near the Sands. In fact, the evaluation of this event is very polarizing:
From a purely observation point of view, you should find this event very fulfilling, and you will be able to meet many people you would not have met in Taiwan.
But in terms of industrial innovation, it's honestly very disappointing, because most of the narrative content is almost the same as in the past few years, so many developers told me that they find it quite boring.
Judging from the booth, the main focus is on encrypted payment, AI, and DePIN. This time, there are actually several manufacturers specializing in the sports track, fan economy and RWA, as well as many manufacturers focusing on compliance. There are even some projects that were only established in the past few months, and they directly come to TOKEN2049 to output firepower to the outside world.
After walking around, my colleague also asked me puzzledly why the TON event in Taiwan was so publicized, but TOKEN2049 saw almost no projects and promotions of the TON ecosystem (the most obvious ones should only be Catizen).
My guess is very simple: TON will be promoted with great fanfare in Asia and even Taiwan. Most of it is the result of media exaggeration. In addition, the project team and KOL are tied to a matrix system, so there will be many people playing in the TON ecosystem. Later, I asked some foreign participants at the Side Event about their opinions on TON. Many people were just observing or not caring. One radical foreigner even replied directly to me: "I Don't Fucking Care about TON." !", which also confirmed my guess.
Going back to the price of TOKEN2049, the original pricing was not to attract retail investors. Therefore, most of the main venue was filled with industry professionals, who were roughly divided into the following categories: capital, exchanges, VCs, project developers, and KOLs. (large-scale), media.
In addition, because the market and liquidity have been very poor in the past year, most people at the main venue want to discuss business, so it really doesn't make much sense for ordinary users to come in. And why are there so many Side Events this time? In fact, it is easy to understand. If the project side does not organize activities, it is basically difficult to attract funds, users, or even more cooperation opportunities. Therefore, many project sides have to bite the bullet and continue to hold activities, just to have more " Transaction opportunity.
Theo (Founder of 3rdStCapital): Infrastructure valuations remain high
1. Everyone is bullish on AI x cryptocurrency and looking for good teams to invest in.
2. Many teams are working on the next pump.fun.
3. Most of the on-chain participants I met are tired of memes and focus more on practicality.
4. The team is interested in MemeFi but does not want to damage its brand. Therefore, most teams don't plan to build their own.
5. There are not many good projects to invest in right now, and many teams are developing the same thing or iterative versions of things that are already on the market.
6. The merchandise released for the project is also strictly judged, with people joking that the team could be in bad shape due to the poor quality of the merchandise, and that the team should really pay attention to detail during these events.
7. Many teams are not qualified to hold events, and their event content is very empty.
8. There are many Side Events, and attendees will evaluate you based on these events. Some teams performed poorly at the event and left a bad impression. I won’t name them here because some of the projects were invested by friends and so on.
8. Valuations remain high at the infrastructure level and lower at the ecosystem level.
9. It is now difficult for entrepreneurial teams to raise funds, and VCs are not very interested. A lot of them are surprised that we're still actively investing.
10. Extremely bullish on Solana, SUI is throwing a huge party and ETH’s price action is unnerving everyone.
Degentrading (KOL): Most projects are boring and just burn VC money
1. I spend 99% of my time one-on-one, which is more productive than any other activity.
2. Of all the events, the bittensor asia meetup was by far the best, I saw real builders on $TAO which reinforced my belief that this is the AI coin of this cycle.
3. Most projects are boring/uninteresting/just a waste of VC money and if we don’t get inflows…the founders will leave and the tokens may die….if we do get inflows I think they will be fine A while? I don't know, I won't buy these coins anyway.
4. Most liquid funds have underperformed Bitcoin, except for those that also trade cryptocurrency-related stocks.
5. Many VCs are truly retarded.
6. Despite some of the projects having huge marketing budgets, the mood was so low that it actually reminded me of some MLM schemes.
7. About $SOL (Solana): I have to say that I really admire the Solana ecosystem. While I’m not sure it can surpass Ethereum, I feel Solana now has a good chance of surviving the pressure to unlock tokens from the FTX liquidation… Ethereum opinion leaders seem to have become disconnected from the masses (probably because it’s too Rich? Who knows, it’s not a good idea anyway). How much faster is Solana progressing than Ethereum? Five times?
8. Regarding perpetual contract decentralized exchanges: These exchanges have been really neglected recently. I think they will become popular again after Hyperliquid is launched.
9. About $LDO (Lido): It may have reached its lowest point, no one hates it anymore... no one cares. As a bullish person, I think this is actually pretty good, it can’t be worse, right?
