Gold is going crazy, breaking through all-time highs. Bitcoin rose by $4,000 in the past week, and Ethereum rose by nearly $300. The crypto industry experienced its best week since September. If it can keep up, the Bitcoin decline curse in September will be broken. Some analysts even said that this is just the beginning, and the next October or even the entire Q4 will usher in a bigger explosion.
What are the factors driving Bitcoin's recent rise?
1. The Fed cuts interest rates, kicking off the rise of Bitcoin
In the early morning of September 19th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve started a radical interest rate cut, the first in four years, and a direct 50BP reduction, which exceeded many people's expectations. Bitcoin quickly soared and broke through the $62,000 mark.
2. Gold surges
Gold also surged after the Fed cut interest rates. Gold has now exceeded $2,600, and has risen by $540 this year, making it the best year since 1979. Investors are risk-averse, and Bitcoin, as digital gold, has also risen along with gold.
3. Ethereum rebounds, driving market sentiment back to health
Ethereum has bottomed out and rebounded in recent days, boosting the activity of the entire ecosystem. Market sentiment has improved, and all sectors are rising, which also plays an important role in maintaining the price of Bitcoin.
4. Harris publicly announced his support for the crypto industry for the first time
Harris said at a fundraiser in New York yesterday that if elected, she would encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors. This is the first time Harris has commented on cryptocurrency as a Democratic presidential candidate. People in the crypto industry have always praised Harris.
For example,
- Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase policy director: Harris' crypto-friendly statement is important and constructive.
- Uniswap Labs CEO Hayden Adams: Harris’ first public support for digital assets is a positive signal
- VanEck analyst Matthew Sigel: Harris' presidency could be more favorable for Bitcoin
- David Hoffman, founder of Bankless : Harris's statement in support of the crypto industry is "late but late", and there is still a lot to do to catch up with Trump
What will happen to the crypto market next? What do analysts think?
1) Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin performed well over the weekend, and now is the time to trade Meme coins
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote today that Bitcoin performed well over the weekend and it is time to trade some Meme coins.
However, this contradicts Arthur Hayes' previous keynote speech at TOKEN2049 in Singapore, where he said the market would collapse before entering a bull market after a rate cut, and ETH would perform strongly during the rate cut cycle.
2) On-chain analyst Ali: BTC's trend in 2024 will be similar to that in 2016 and 2020, and Q4 may see a strong performance
On-chain analyst Ali wrote on X today: "BTC rose 61% in Q4 2016 and 171% in the same period of 2020. The price trend of BTC in 2024 is currently very similar to these two years. Will history repeat itself?"
3) 10x Research: BTC is expected to hit a record high in Q4
Crypto research agency 10x Research released a market analysis stating that BTC is expected to hit a record high in the fourth quarter of 2024. It recently discussed potential catalysts for BTC's year-end rebound, noting that the current market structure has improved, stablecoins continue to increase, and futures leverage is also rising. As we approach the critical October-March window, the possibility of a major breakthrough will increase.
4) Senior analyst Peter Brandt : The exchange rate of Bitcoin against gold may rise by more than 400% next year
Peter Brandt, a veteran chart analyst and founder of Factor Trading who successfully predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, said that by 2025, the ratio of Bitcoin to gold could rise by more than 400%.
Brandt cites classic technical chart analysis to support his extremely bullish outlook. Based on a technical pattern called the Inverted Head and Shoulders (IH&S), this pattern forms when prices form three consecutive troughs, with the middle trough (called the head) being deeper than the other two troughs (called the left and right shoulders). This pattern forms below a common support line (called the neckline). The IH&S pattern disappears when prices break through the neckline on rising volume. At this point, prices rise by an amount equal to the maximum distance between the neckline and the deepest point of the head.
Regarding the Bitcoin to Gold exchange rate, the price of 1 BTC could be equal to 123 ounces of gold as early as 2025, a more than 400% increase from 24 ounces on September 22, 2024.
5) Financial Index: If #Bitcoin closes above $65,000 resistance, the bull market will return
Although it is still some distance away from $65,000, it is entirely possible to break through within a day. Perhaps only then can we determine whether the bull market has really returned.
